Mississippi Results Thread (3/11/08) - Only One Please!

[CGP]

Please discuss tonight's results in this thread...

CNN EXIT POLL: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#MSDEM

CNN RESULTS LINK: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#MS

EXIT POLL:

Women (57%): Obama 57%, Clinton 42%

Men (43%): Obama 61%, Clinton 39%

Obama should win based on this poll....

------------------------

SOME STATS


REPUBLICANS (13% of voters):

Clinton 78% to Obama 22%


WHITE INDEPENDENTS (13% of voters)

Clinton 59% to Obama 39%


WHITE DEMOCRATS (24% of voters)

Clinton 74% to Obama 24%


BLACK DEMOCRATS (44% of voters)

Obama 90% to Obama 10%

[lakerchick4life]

I posted this on another thread but since this thread is about MS then I will just copy and paste it here
Unfortunately this has become a race issue. They just did the exit polls in Mississippi, and 9-1 blacks voted for Obama while 3 out of 4 white women/men voted for Clinton..White men voted for Clinton 69 percent to 30 percent Obama..but but, in Wisconsin he had the white men vote..hmmmm..tides are a turning in Hillary's favor

[neutralplayer]

If this trend actually holds she'll be in good shape for the rest of the race.

[hiptulip]

Hello this is my first post and first time on bulletin like this.

I just finished calls to Mississippi voters, mostly in the rural eastern part of the state. Chatted with a women from Ruleville who was not well today (she said today of all days) so was sorry she COULD NOT go to vote for Hillary but she WILL in the election. She tells me that most of the black vote (she said she was black) is for Hillary and the whites are voting for her too. She states that they are fed up with the current Republican administration. She also offered info that the low income Blacks in the delta she was sorry to say do not understand about politics and voted for Obama.

These rural voters, I have called the last couple of days generally were voting for Hillary. The folks in Mississippi have been very kind on the phone so has been great! Now on to PA!

I believe Carla knows a lot about phone calling and I will send you a personal message to find out - if other lists exist and coaching person for Hillary’s call center? I am really out of the loop but have enjoyed my connection with this group since I first viewed on 3/7 and joined 3/9/07.

More about me and reason here later.

[CGP]

Obama's use of the "race" card against Clinton is BACKFIRING!

KARMA BUDDY!

[neutralplayer]

So what's the tally so far (I have refused to watch tonight's coverage)

[Patsy]

How 'bout them apples!!!!

[CGP]

EXIT POLL:

Women (57%): Obama 57%, Clinton 42%

Men (43%): Obama 61%, Clinton 39%

OBAMA WIN'S EASILY BASED ON THIS....

[Patsy]

EXIT POLL:

Women (57%): Obama 57%, Clinton 42%

Men (43%): Obama 61%, Clinton 39%

OBAMA WIN'S EASILY BASED ON THIS....

Normally they put the winner sign up straight away, but none of the networks are calling it yet and they've been closed for 30 mins.

So, it might be closer than we think.

[johnny51981]

But that is based on 1524 responses. Is that a good enough sampling?

[lakerchick4life]

Normally they put the winner sign up straight away, but none of the networks are calling it yet and they've been closed for an hour.

So, it might be closer than we think.

Yeah usually they already start tallying the numbers..I know that for Texas they started the counting like 2 hours before the polls even closed..hmmm, very strange..maybe she IS closer then rumored..Even if Obama wins(Which it is very obvious that he will) maybe tonight will be her night as well GO HILL :D

[CGP]

But that is based on 1524 responses. Is that a good enough sampling?

Throughout this entire campaign I have not seen one Exit Poll that ended up being wrong....

They seem to be valid/reliable predictors of the eventual outcome....

[skc1976]

How funny that CNN doesn't post the race issue in the exit polls to show how they break down. While it's discouraging to see briefly on CNN that she lost blacks 9 to 1, it's VERY encouraging that she secured 70% of the white vote. Here's hoping that continues into some very white states coming up. And apparently white men are really getting on board with her!

[neutralplayer]

I suspect African Americans made up a majority of those responses.

[CGP]

Obama should win on the basis of support from African-Americans (44% of voters): Obama 90% to Clinton 10%.

Interesting.

[CGP]

I suspect African Americans made up a majority of those responses.

See post above.

[rene.d]

Yeah, it's weird how they're not calling it.
Kind of suspicious.
Another interesting statistic is how well she did among Independent voters:
Here's the exit poll by party affiliation
Clinton
Democrat (70%) 32%
Independent (17%) 48%
Republican (13%) 77%

This is a positive trend compared with recent primaries.

[johnny51981]

Throughout this entire campaign I have not seen one Exit Poll that ended up being wrong....

They seem to be valid/reliable predictors of the eventual outcome....

I didn't look at the New Hampshire EP's....did they call Hillary's win?

[neutralplayer]

Throughout this entire campaign I have not seen one Exit Poll that ended up being wrong....

They seem to be valid/reliable predictors of the eventual outcome....

Well the exit polls out of NH were wrong (at least the early ones)

So while Obama will likely win this I'll wait and see.

[neutralplayer]

Also the fact the she carried those three groups (Republicans, White Dems, and Independents) looks promising (at least to close the gap).

[Patsy]

Throughout this entire campaign I have not seen one Exit Poll that ended up being wrong....

They seem to be valid/reliable predictors of the eventual outcome....

They've called it for O.
No hard numbers yet.

The only exit polls that were faulty were the ones in 2000 in Florida. Funny about that, huh?

[neutralplayer]

I don't think it bodes well for the Obama campaign that he won this largely due to the AA vote.

[lanney]

Looks like he is not heading for big win.

[neutralplayer]

How's the TV coverage so far since it seems it won't be a BLOWOUT like expected.

[skc1976]

The divide in the party is deeper than I think the DNC can fathom. I think Mississippi shows a very disturbing trend. Obama is winning this in heavy black voting states and caucus states. Hillary is making major in roads with the white male vote. I'm sure the DNC is wondering if Obama does become the nominee, how many of those white voters will go GOP, just as if they wonder how many blacks will vote for Clinton in November when she's the nominee.

[Disfranchised]

Very interesting with 0% of Precincts reporting, They already decided BO wins and he gets 6 delegates and Hillary gets 3.

[CGP]

Also the fact the she carried those three groups (Republicans, White Dems, and Independents) looks promising (at least to close the gap).

This is certainly encouraging for upcoming states. And an improvement from her results in Feb after Super Tuesday.

[lanney]

Blacks started this trend, media and BHO encouraged this trend.
Now for PA he will change his black grand parents and will start remembering his white grand parents.
His is winning because of race he is exploiting.

He is blocking roads for future black candidates.

[Kathy in NH]

Very interesting with 0% of Precincts reporting, They already decided BO wins and he gets 6 delegates and Hillary gets 3.

Aren't those delegate numbers just the superdelegates?

[CGP]

The divide in the party is deeper than I think the DNC can fathom. I think Mississippi shows a very disturbing trend. Obama is winning this in heavy black voting states and caucus states. Hillary is making major in roads with the white male vote. I'm sure the DNC is wondering if Obama does become the nominee, how many of those white voters will go GOP, just as if they wonder how many blacks will vote for Clinton in November when she's the nominee.

The trends are disturbing. But the increase in the white vote for Hillary is more recent. And maybe a backlash against the extremely high black vote for Obama. A significant majority of African-Americans are clearly voting on race, so maybe some white people have decided to do the same to even things out? In all of this, where is the voting based on SUBTANCE, SKILLS, KNOWLEDGE, EXPERIENCE....

[lakerchick4life]

Ok NOW they are starting with the numbers..with 1 percent reporting..this is only like 1000 votes in so far, well pretty much a blowout right now, but its still so darn early

[lanney]

Current result is not that bad. results from black area.

[Peppermint Patty]

So tell me she got at least some delegates, right? He doesn't get all 33, right? I just hate that he can still claim to be in "first" place , the de facto front runner -- that is until we get to PA! If the media could just hold off burying her until then!

I need some hardy encouragement from my fellow HRC supporters! :eek:

[neutralplayer]

He's not going to get all 33 delegates.

[lakerchick4life]

Fox News seems to be the only channel with the ACTUAL numbers and if you all look at it..he is only up by 9 points..with 1 percent reporting, went from 22 percent down to 9 percent down

[Disfranchised]

Yahoo already announced him as winner.

[lanney]

2% reporting
HRC - 44%
BHO - 53%

Heavily republican area she is doing very good 66% - 31%

[lakerchick4life]

CHECK IT OUT PEOPLE..TIE 49-49..I'm not concerned with him winning, I really can care less about that, to me it just matters how much he wins by

[neutralplayer]

What areas are reporting?

[Disfranchised]

Woot 3% reporting 49% to 49%

[lanney]

What areas are reporting?

UNION and LEE, HRC is doing very good

[lakerchick4life]

I am VERY shocked at this..that it is a tie with 3 percent reporting is a huge shock to me..not concerned about his victory..but believe me, if its not a landslide it wont make him feel any good

[Jayling]

This is only my estimate by Congressional District Delegates and Statewide Deles for Mississippi -- Hillary will possibly wind up with 14 Deles and Obama with 19.

We shall see though!

[neutralplayer]

It appears she's doing better than expected.

In GA and SC she was never this close even in the early numbers.

[lakerchick4life]

Hold Up..clinton Is Leading Obama 52-46 Percent

[lanney]

Now HRC is 52%
BHO - 46%

celebrate:):):):)

[lakerchick4life]

I think I would go outside and my very first cartwheel if Hillary actually ending up winning this thing

[Disfranchised]

What areas are reporting?

Union, Lee, Humphreys, Warren, Rankin, Newton, Amite, Pike, Harrison, Jackson

[skc1976]

The trends are disturbing. But the increase in the white vote for Hillary is more recent. And maybe a backlash against the extremely high black vote for Obama. A significant majority of African-Americans are clearly voting on race, so maybe some white people have decided to do the same to even things out? In all of this, where is the voting based on SUBTANCE, SKILLS, KNOWLEDGE, EXPERIENCE....

The voting based on that is on the GOP side voting for McCain over Huckabee. LOL j/k :D

It really could be a backlash, especially if they keep pulling this racism card that the media keeps using. If anything, it may end up pushing more white voters to go against the party if he's the nominee.

Honestly, and don't hate me for this, I think that Clinton will have a tough time as the nominee uniting the party. I think Obama will have a very tough time too. Because honestly, I won't vote for him and it seems that there's a great deal of unrest with him and his supporters. McCain could be a shoo in if the media keeps stuffing Obama at us and keeps degrading everything Clinton does. It makes me sick!

[Disfranchised]

I think I would go outside and my very first cartwheel if Hillary actually ending up winning this thing

Me and you both. LOL

[emmyCA]

Currently CCN shows Hillary 52%, Obama 45%, 5% votes counted. 95% votes still haven't been counted. Why CCN projected Obama won Miississppi....It is rediculous, why they declared that early???

[Jayling]

You can see the results by counties and the percentage in for each county over at CNN, in the Tables section:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/county/#val=MSDEMPRIMARY1

[CGP]

Currently CCN shows Hillary 52%, Obama 45%, 5% votes counted. 95% votes still haven't been counted. Why CCN projected Obama won Miississppi....It is rediculous, why they declared that early???

It all depends on which precincts are reporting.

I am sure some areas of MS are more white and some are more black.

It might be the more white-populated areas reporting.

Who knows.

[Disfranchised]

Currently CCN shows Hillary 52%, Obama 45%, 5% votes counted. 95% votes still haven't been counted. Why CCN projected Obama won Miississppi....It is rediculous, why they declared that early???

Media has been wrong a lot in the past. Remember your American History and Thomas E. Dewey?

[neutralplayer]

Interesting so far.... we shall see.

[lanney]

In Tippah - HRC is leading by 85%
In DESTO - HRC is leading by 65%

HRC will get good no. of delegates. I think she had gained 80% of white male votes

[blueskygal]

it's interesting they are always so quick to call BO but not Hillary's obvious win in OHio

[joeysky18]

This is too exciting. I don't have TV on. CNN is banned in my house.

Keep update the figure folks. It's really nerve racking..!:eek:

[Renee in Florida]

WOOT,

49 % Obama. 48 % Hillary, but only 8 % in.

Can she pull this out,???

Even close will be a moral victory!!!!

[skc1976]

Currently CCN shows Hillary 52%, Obama 45%, 5% votes counted. 95% votes still haven't been counted. Why CCN projected Obama won Miississppi....It is rediculous, why they declared that early???

At least we can say we had the lead! :D

[Disfranchised]

8% reporting BO 10,659 49% Hillary 10,534 48%

[Jayling]

If you have a map of MS and use the table county link from CNN, it looks like she's doing well in the northern part of the state.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/county/#val=MSDEMPRIMARY1

http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/images/pdf/congdist/pagecgd110_ms.pdf

[lanney]

In Tippah - HRC is leading by 85%
In DESTO - HRC is leading by 65%

HRC will get good no. of delegates. I think she had gained 80% of white male votes

[Smart cookie]

The best site is the one on CNN at the top of this thread. You can roll your mouse over the counties on the map and see the complete breakdown of the numbers. She is kicking his butt in a few which is nice to see considering the blowout some expected.

[jerseygirl7]

Wow! Wouldn't that be fantastic! Bo and Mo must be sweating it out! Heheeeeeeeeee!
Let's hope for a great result. Another nail biter???

[Disfranchised]

9% reporting
BO 12,710 50%

Hillary 11,897 47%

[joeysky18]

If you have a map of MS and use the table county link from CNN, it looks like she's doing well in the northern part of the state.


That's consistent with the report from callers. Hillary has more supporters in northern part. Lower delta has more black population and most go for Obama.

[Patsy]

The voting based on that is on the GOP side voting for McCain over Huckabee. LOL j/k :D

It really could be a backlash, especially if they keep pulling this racism card that the media keeps using. If anything, it may end up pushing more white voters to go against the party if he's the nominee.

Honestly, and don't hate me for this, I think that Clinton will have a tough time as the nominee uniting the party. I think Obama will have a very tough time too. Because honestly, I won't vote for him and it seems that there's a great deal of unrest with him and his supporters. McCain could be a shoo in if the media keeps stuffing Obama at us and keeps degrading everything Clinton does. It makes me sick!

I actually wanted to discuss this at some point. I think we have a real problem on our hands and I'd much rather see what's his face drummed out on a stick in November than Hillary.

We can chat in private about all of this.

[floorrunner]

This does not look good for Obama in some areas at least 6 counties are reporting so far at least 70% for Hillary and even 2 counties so far are reporting in the high 80's for Hillary.

[TeejDee]

49%to 49%

[Renee in Florida]

Hillary is only behind 75 votes!!!!

[Disfranchised]

OMG I love the people in Greene Hillary 90% of the votes. BO 5%. what happened to the other 5%? lol

[superradmom]

According to my Mom who worked at a precinct in Jackson county (coast), the voting appeared to be 50 - 50. Lot of excitement for Hillary. The coast counties should help Hillary. They're still suffering from Katrina..

[floorrunner]

Right now with 12% reporting he is only ahead by 85 votes.

[Smart cookie]

That's consistent with the report from callers. Hillary has more supporters in northern part. Lower delta has more black population and most go for Obama.

Look at some of the returns in the deep southern precincts. SHe is taking more than I would have thought.

[lakerchick4life]

Down 5 percent..its gonna go back and forth but when you look at things Hillary should be VERY pleased with this turnout for her. A state that was gonna go for Obama hands down has shown A LOT of support for her. Even though she won't win the actual state, just to be this close is a definite victory for her

[Patsy]

She seems to be doing well, but according to CNN Maggie Williams issued a statement congratulating O on his win.

Either the HRC camp knows something we don't or they all need muzzles.

I know I'd have made him sweat until more were reporting.

[CGP]

He will win but the results are troubling for him:

He LOST white democrats

He LOST white independents

He LOST Republicans

He has claimed he has "crossover" appeal with Independents/Republicans - he lost them both in MS and HRC needs to use this in upcoming campaigning.

[lanney]

Some counties vote difference is 2 or 5 votes.
This is close race.

[Disfranchised]

20% reporting
BO 31,851 52%

Hillary 28,050 46%

[jbohio]

Ok everyone.......
Keith Olberman is pissed at the Clinton campaign and he is going to deliver a "Special Comment" tomorrow night against the Clinton campaign

[lanney]

Obama 37,061 52% 6 23% reporting
Clinton 32,061 45% 3

Only difference 5000 votes, not bad

[LJSNAustin]

Ok everyone.......
Keith Olberman is pissed at the Clinton campaign and he is going to deliver a "Special Comment" tomorrow night against the Clinton campaign

Yeah, he's been delivering "special comments" toward Hillary for a long time now!!! :mad:

[lanney]

Lets start calling sponsors of his programme, they may pull out.

[neutralplayer]

5,000.... not bad

what areas are reporting... she could shrink if areas she is expected to do well in arent reporting yet.

[lakerchick4life]

Now she is down 14 points..oh well it was fun while it lasted..but I am still extremely happy with all those that came out to support her

[CGP]

If she can stay above 40%, I would be happy!

[neutralplayer]

What are the latest numbers and % reporting?

[johnny51981]

It looks really good. Yes, it is a win in his column....but it doesn't look like it will be by a huge margin. So, with a combination of that and a huge win in Pennsylvania (and hopefully a good turn around in North Carolina), it will be VERY good for HRC!

[Optixmom]

O 56/ C 42

But the breakdown county by county is fascinating! Racial divides...right there in front of you.

[G4Hillary]

Yes, we need to get Olbermann. What is the best way to talk to sponsors and get him off TV. Is there a petition or something that we can start or join. I know the Republicans are running something against him. I would be ecstatic to join at this join. He has abused his standing in the Left wing. He needs to go.

[lanney]

Obama 55,883 56% 6 32%reporting
Clinton 42,727 42% 3

[KYWildcatFan]

Ok everyone.......
Keith Olberman is pissed at the Clinton campaign and he is going to deliver a "Special Comment" tomorrow night against the Clinton campaign

I can not stand that man (or he calls himself one, I am still wondering about that) every time he opens his mouth sewage spills out. He needs a new job some where that is more appropriate, like maybe scavenging for sewer rats!

[johnny51981]

Yeah, he's been delivering "special comments" toward Hillary for a long time now!!! :mad:

Yeah, what else could he say?

[skc1976]

It looks really good. Yes, it is a win in his column....but it doesn't look like it will be by a huge margin. So, with a combination of that and a huge win in Pennsylvania (and hopefully a good turn around in North Carolina), it will be VERY good for HRC!

If she could pull 70% of the white vote in North Carolina, she'd do VERY well in taking the state. And if we can get out the Hispanic vote too, which there is some there, that would help a great deal too! If she can continue to pull GOP numbers too, that helps in a GOP state. Let's hope they vote for her to keep it going!

[luvhillary]

Does anyone know when the Puerto Rico primary is? I've heard that it is a winner take all there even for Demorcrats. If so, we can really make up a large amount of delegates there. Does anyone have info?

If the above is true, we need a strong ground campaign and many calls to be made there. It's never to early to start. :)

[Jayling]

Puerto Rico moved their Primary up to June 1st.

[ProHiLL]

He will win but the results are troubling for him:

He LOST white democrats

He LOST white independents

He LOST Republicans

He has claimed he has "crossover" appeal with Independents/Republicans - he lost them both in MS and HRC needs to use this in upcoming campaigning.

His crossover vote that he has sustained up to this point is meaningless. They never had any intention of voting for him in the GE. The same will be true for any crossover Hillary gets. It is strictly a sick ploy by the Repubs to wreak havoc with the Dem voting process. It is clearly a divisive trick to keep the Dems fighting each other and fracturing the party.
Fractured Dems=McCain in 08
But like Hillary said to Rush Limbaugh " Be careful what you wish for" Hillary can get this nomination and I believe is strong enough to beat McCain. It remains to be seen however how the Obamanots will respond in the general election. They are so easily swayed and have bought into all this Hillary bashing nonsense. All force fed to them by the MSM, Repub attack machine, and the overly ambitious BO.

[skc1976]

Puerto Rico moved their Primary up to June 1st.

Caucus or primary? I know they were trying to change to a primary.

[skc1976]

I actually wanted to discuss this at some point. I think we have a real problem on our hands and I'd much rather see what's his face drummed out on a stick in November than Hillary.

We can chat in private about all of this.

Feel free to shoot a message. :D

[lanney]

Caucus or primary? I know they were trying to change to a primary.
Primary

[lanney]

Obama 66,734 55% 16 36% reporting
Clinton 52,349 43% 9

Lets see how fast he change into white man in PA.

[Patsy]

Obama 66,734 55% 16 36% reporting
Clinton 52,349 43% 9

Lets see how fast he change into white man in PA.

LMAO

[Jayling]

Caucus or primary? I know they were trying to change to a primary.
Sean, they changed it to a Primary because they wouldn't be able to handle the large amount of voters that will come out for the election. :)

[unchainthedogs]

She's doing much better than I thought she would!! Good for her. Go Hillary. Plus John King just mapped out a way for her to get ahead in pledged delegates overall because she is winning in conservative Republican areas!!! YES!! I always thought she would do well in conservative areas, probably because of white women!! That's my prediction.;)

[neutralplayer]

Looks like this vote split along race lines (which is a bad sign for obama).

[CGP]

Looks like this vote split along race lines (which is a bad sign for obama).

Agreed. In other states he was getting a bigger % of the white vote. Not this time. Seems the tide is turning...And continuing on from March 4th...

[lanney]

yes, it is 100% on race line. Bad news for BHO and loser gang.

[ninadhan]

Does anyone have an email contact where we can, as viewers, protest Keith's special commentary against Hillary?

[floorrunner]

It just narrowed to 10% with 48% reporting. Very Interesting

[lakerchick4life]

Now she is down 16 points :(

[floorrunner]

There is still some hope to narrow it down very close because 17 counties have not reported anything yet.

[neutralplayer]

I think it depends where those counties are (and their population).

[Patsy]

Looks like this vote split along race lines (which is a bad sign for obama).

So far it is. Let's keep it going!!!!

[ninadhan]

What is msnbc up to now? What did Keith Obama i mean olberman say now?

Apparently he is having a special commentary against HRC tomorrow

[lakerchick4life]

Can someone tell me the areas that they have NOT counted yet..how many of those are white counties..yeah unfortunately its gotten to that point that I gotta ask questions like that

[floorrunner]

What I find interesting is that Harrison County, home to Gulfport and Biloxi are in Hillary's favor. 2 population centers that Obama is not getting.

[skc1976]

Sean, they changed it to a Primary because they wouldn't be able to handle the large amount of voters that will come out for the election. :)

This is AWESOME news and very beneficial to Hillary. Still winner take all?

[neutralplayer]

Is Harrison County reporting?

[lanney]

What I find interesting is that Harrison County, home to Gulfport and Biloxi are in Hillary's favor. 2 population centers that Obama is not getting.

Harrison county went to BHO 54% - 45%:confused:

[Patsy]

This is AWESOME news and very beneficial to Hillary. Still winner take all?

Hey who wants to go to old San Juan for a bit?

A little Tropical Holiday.....

[no_more_bush]

I love how dramatically offended all the anchors and pundits pretend to be when they explain how "incredibly negative" Hillary Clinton is.

[Jayling]

Is Harrison County reporting?
Yes, she was leading most of the night down there, but it switched late.

100% reporting in Harrison:
Clinton - 8070 (45%)
Obama - 9762 (54%)

[G4Hillary]

All this information is simply validation of the fact that Obama can not win in November. The race card he has played is back firing and will only continue to grow.

Todays report that as voters get to know him his support is going down among non-blacks.

[lakerchick4life]

He is gonna win by 18 points..perhaps a few less, I was feeling better before when she was only trailing by 6 but damn, it's a freakin landslide for him..I know, I didn't expect her to win anyway but still, she has to basically win PA by a hugeeeeeee amount or it's basically over for her. She is down way too much

[luvhillary]

Article on the Puerto Rico delegats. Not sure if this is in our favor.

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/barone/2008/2/6/puerto-rican-poll-power.html

[Peppermint Patty]

Wait I was responding to her getting 14 delegates to his 19. Will that hold up? Was it really a friggin landslide? What a pain!!!

[floorrunner]

Yes, she was leading most of the night down there, but it switched late.

100% reporting in Harrison:
Clinton - 8070 (45%)
Obama - 9762 (54%)
I just saw. but less than 9% in a big poulation center is good. I hope the unreported counties can help narrow that lead.

[skc1976]

Hey who wants to go to old San Juan for a bit?

A little Tropical Holiday.....

Kitty, you tease!!!! :D :p

[xfiles]

John King did a fast hypothetical with his map and showed a feasible (but hypothetical) where Hillary could be ahead in the plegded delegate count at the end of this thing.

That was encouraging!


I don't see how anyone can say it's not about race when ther is such a high percentage of black vote for Obama.

[Les33]

If you look at the CNN map where you can see the county breakdowns, there's a county called Rankin next to Hinds county (where Jackson is), and this is the only county I can find that has a bigger Republican turnout than Democrat. I have a suspicion that the heavily white counties are predominantly republican.

[jenans]

I'm afraid to get my hopes up too high, but I found a site with MS demographics by county and several of the counties that haven't reported at all are primarily white. Maybe this can help close the gap some.

CNN Map with counties reported:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#MS

Map of MS counties with demographics:
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/mississippi_map.html

Click the county to get the demographics. Especially Jones, Perry, & George counties.

Fingers crossed!!!

[Patsy]

What I find interesting is that Harrison County, home to Gulfport and Biloxi are in Hillary's favor. 2 population centers that Obama is not getting.

I would have actually expected that, she's the only one who's been to the Gulf Region and has made Katrina a focal point both in the Senate and on the Campaign. Addressing the issue of raising FEMA back to where it should be.

Also, I hate to say this, but Biloxi is military and the Gulf Region does not bode well for O African American wise, there's a lot of business in that region.

Plus, don't forget, Bush made his fabulous speech about repairing the region 2 years ago from the demolished land on which Trent Lott's home once stood!

[lakerchick4life]

Basically the ONLY way she has a change is to win PA..and by HUGEEEEEEEEE margins, not 10 points, but a huge amount, like 16+ if she can win PA by a pretty large percentage, then her chances are actually very good. on CNN they showed a way for Hillary to actually WIN, but she has to take states by a huge number, 10 percent won't do it..has to be much bigger then that..so for everyone in PA..or if you know people in PA..please have them vote for Hillary..she needs those votes

[Patsy]

I would have actually expected that, she's the only one who's been to the Gulf Region and has made Katrina a focal point both in the Senate and on the Campaign. Addressing the issue of raising FEMA back to where it should be.

Also, I hate to say this, but Biloxi is military and the Gulf Region does not bode well for O African American wise, there's a lot of business in that region.

Plus, don't forget, Bush made his fabulous speech about repairing the region 2 years ago from the demolished land on which Trent Lott's home once stood!

I guess I should read more before I post:)

Or I'm an extraordinarily slow typist!

[Peppermint Patty]

He is gonna win by 18 points..perhaps a few less, I was feeling better before when she was only trailing by 6 but damn, it's a freakin landslide for him..I know, I didn't expect her to win anyway but still, she has to basically win PA by a hugeeeeeee amount or it's basically over for her. She is down way too much

If they seat FL and MI which she won, she would be ahead right now and this travesty would be a moot point.

She doesn't have to win HUGE but she does have to win. We can't give up hope because of tonight!!!

[Patsy]

If they seat FL and MI which she won, she would be ahead right now and this travesty would be a moot point.

She doesn't have to win HUGE but she does have to win. We can't give up hope because of tonight!!!

Spot on!!!

I'm all about a moot point. I think they should just seat Florida and let Al sue whomever he wants and re-do Michigan.

Howard Dean would love the thought at how much less that would cost seeing as he couldn't raise money from an open vault at a bank.

Ooops, I almost forgot, he's a neutral OBAMA supporter.

[lanney]

Now only two counties are majority white and rest are all blacks

[skc1976]

Mississippi was never planned on winning. The demographics aren't there. But some great things came out of Mississippi, like some of the exit polls. Don't lose hope. It's on to PA, IN, and NC!

[luvhillary]

I think I'm done for tonight. Off to bed I go. Good Night everyone!

Hillary will win this! :)

[lanney]

I think I'm done for tonight. Off to bed I go. Good Night everyone!

Hillary will win this! :)
Ya BHO can't win this in GE. No loss for HRC

[candyrose9460]

I live in ms and the whites are voting for clinton.. the blacks are voting obama. the whites say if he gets it. they will vote mccain in nov........

[Bacio83]

The fact that this wasn't S. Carolina redux makes me feel better...


S. Carolina; C/27, E/18, O/55

It looks like in the south Senator Clinton's gathered Edwards' base.

So far with 92% reporting...

Miss.; C/39, O/59

Which IMO since he's getting 90% of the largest voting base which are AA this could have been so much worse. HRC's gaining on some demo's and I'm happy for her.

[skc1976]

I live in ms and the whites are voting for clinton.. the blacks are voting obama. the whites say if he gets it. they will vote mccain in nov........

Well, I'm sure that this will make Mississippi an even redder state in November if he "hoodwinks" the nomination!

[Jayling]

My preliminary crunching of numbers is looking like my good-scenario ones.

IF the percentages don't change with the very few precincts yet to report, and the 1 county still out, it appears the Delegate allocation will be:

Clinton - 14
Obama - 19
Total - 33

Net gain will be only 5.

Obama does have 3 SuperDelegates who previously endorsed him - there are 4 Supers who haven't endorsed yet.

So if these percentages hold up plus adding in his Supers, the allocation should be Clinton 14 / Obama 22.

I'm very happy about this -- it could've turned much worse.

Jay

[CGP]

Thanks Jayling.

Compared with S.Caroline, Hillary's vote has increase 12% from 27 to 39 and Obama's has only increase 4% from 55 to 59. So more of Edward's votes have gone to Hillary than to Obama.

[skc1976]

Thanks Jayling.

Compared with S.Caroline, Hillary's vote has increase 12% from 27 to 39 and Obama's has only increase 4% from 55 to 59. So more of Edward's votes have gone to Hillary than to Obama.

I think this boils down to the 70% of whites voting for Clinton. GOOD INCREASES indeed!

[skc1976]

My preliminary crunching of numbers is looking like my good-scenario ones.

IF the percentages don't change with the very few precincts yet to report, and the 1 county still out, it appears the Delegate allocation will be:

Clinton - 14
Obama - 19
Total - 33

Net gain will be only 5.

Obama does have 3 SuperDelegates who previously endorsed him - there are 4 Supers who haven't endorsed yet.

So if these percentages hold up plus adding in his Supers, the allocation should be Clinton 14 / Obama 22.

I'm very happy about this -- it could've turned much worse.

Jay

Thanks so much for doing the numbers crunching. You're a definite whiz at this!! Definitely something encouraging.

[Joe from WI]

My preliminary crunching of numbers is looking like my good-scenario ones.

IF the percentages don't change with the very few precincts yet to report, and the 1 county still out, it appears the Delegate allocation will be:

Clinton - 14
Obama - 19
Total - 33

Net gain will be only 5.

Obama does have 3 SuperDelegates who previously endorsed him - there are 4 Supers who haven't endorsed yet.

So if these percentages hold up plus adding in his Supers, the allocation should be Clinton 14 / Obama 22.

I'm very happy about this -- it could've turned much worse.

Jay


YAY!! I like the numbers too.

[lucky-ann]

5 delegates difference? I thought it would be much worse :) now she has to win big in PA and start closing the gap...then I believe she'll get the nomination, because then she has the momentum for the remaining contests (but just if she wins BIG in PA, less than 10 points won't make it i suppose...15 points ahead would be great xD)

[movingtous]

Obama has argued, all along, that he can get a huge voter turnout to turn some of those red states into blue states. He was not able to do that in Mississippi, where the overwhelming majority of white voters just refused to take the bait. Not only that, many said they would not vote for Obama in the general election. This ought to start worrying a lot of Democrats out there, since there are many Archie Bunker type of voters that will swing this election. I'd hate to say this, but McCain's chances look better and better every day! Among my Democrat friends, 8 out of 10 will throw their support to McCain, should Obama get the nomination. Many of my friends said NO WAY to Huckabee, but since McCain is already SOOOO liberal, they feel that they could give him a try.
My argument, all along, has been that we are still in the microcosm of the Democratic election, where Barack has been able to get a free ride and practically no fear mongering. Wait until a Willie Horton type ad comes out, true or not, about his connections with radical Islamic leaders, etc. His bubble would burst, and the Republicans would come home to roost. Mark my words!

[blueskygal]

she blew obama away in the counties she took by VERY WIDE MARGINS. Perhaps a backlash is starting...

[Bacio83]

This Times article (http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1721494,00.html)makes me feel better I don't know why ;)

"Broken down, the Mississippi vote had an unmistakable racial descant — and unmistakable limits for Obama. Exit polls revealed once again an emerging racial divide that has opened in the Democratic party between whites who tend by healthy margins to favor Clinton and blacks who overwhelmingly favor Obama. African Americans comprised nearly half of the Democratic vote in Mississippi — and 90% of those voters, according to exit polls, pulled the lever for Obama, his strongest showing yet among African Americans. But Obama did poorly among whites, winning only 30%, according to exit polls. While this split was visible in Alabama and the border state of Tennessee earlier this year, it was visible in Ohio's primary last week, too.

Mississippi is one of the most reliably Republican states in presidential elections. Only a Democrat who could win 35 to 40% of the white vote, while holding onto a lopsided percentage of blacks, could put the state in play in a head to head match with a Republican in the fall. Obama's 30% showing in the primary against Clinton falls short of that target. "

[lucky-ann]

great article! (i just don't like the end, that it's difficult for her to catch up, but i think i have to deal with the facts;):rolleyes: but i'm confident she will start with it in PA and if she wins the overall popular vote, i think the super delegates should make her the nominee (even if obama is ahead in pledged delegates), because thats much more telling than obamas caucus delegates! it also would make o's argument super delegates shouldn't overrule the will of the people meaningless...

[handymanhdw]

The media is dividing our party with the race issue. No one else! Hillary will get at least 20 percent of the black vote come November. I'm not sure what white males (which I am one) have been thinking by supporting this guy? If he's the nominee, Myself and wife will most likely sit out (sadly). Our country can't go another four years of "nothing getting done for the working class", as Bush has done to us, and I don't think OB will do anything for our class either. That class by the way INCLUDES BLACKS AND WHITES! Also if you watch CNN, MSNBC, Olbermann, Matthews, to name a few others, THEY ARE TRYING TO DO HILLARY CAMP IN!!!!! I've had it with em!

[rene.d]

I think Hillary would easily clear 75% of black voters.
If you consider simply that we're largely Democrats, that deep down most of us love the Clintons, and that John McCain doesn't really have anything to offer minorities. Does he?
Nope.
I think he lacks respect for cultures that differ from his, and since his culture is one of patriarchy, he also lacks respect for powerful women.

Let's see.... McCain:
"I hated the gooks. I will hate them as long as I live."
""Could I just make a comment? I'm not interested in trading with Al Qaida. All they want to trade is burkas."
Opposed a national holiday commemorating the life of Martin Luther King Jr
Is no stranger to the phrase "tar baby"

Okay I'll stop.
Starting to hyperventilate.:mad:

[samkm]

she can do it.. bec she has been genuine.. when all this dust settles down, they will see that she has extended her hand several times.. that she has done more for them as a constituency than he has.. and some key people will speak up and shed light..

Barack will be neutralized.... if they can see what he has done to them in manipulating them with their words and their heritage... without doing anything at all, except a lot of hogwash false hopes.

Hillary will be left with the hard work of reconstruction.. Thankfully, she and her supporters are upto it!!

We want the country united... not around hatred...
.. we want the country united... united around unity...united around diversity.... and united around the country and its democracy and ideals.