6/2/08 New ARG Polling for Montana & South Dakota ***Take the number with a pinch of salt***

[Cooney]

I don't think this has even made it to the MSM. I think we need to pass it around. Look at South Dakota.

June 2, 2008 - Montana Democratic Primary Preference

Montana
Democrats May 31-June 1

Clinton 44%
Obama 48%
Undecided 8%

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 56% to 35% among men (45% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 52% to 41%.

Obama leads 49% to 45% among voters age 18 to 49 (44% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Obama leads 48% to 43% among voters age 50 and older.

26% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 15% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

June 2, 2008 - South Dakota Democratic Primary Preference

South Dakota
Democrats May 31-June 1

Clinton 60%
Obama 34%
Undecided 6%

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 56% to 39% among men (46% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 63% to 29%.

Clinton leads 57% to 38% among voters age 18 to 49 (46% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 63% to 30% among voters age 50 and older.

11% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 27% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

[SadStateOfAffairs]

Whoa!:D

[Brooke]

I think she's gonna get SD. I hope!

[Angelica91]

WOW GREAT NEWS! Hillary can win in South Dakota and can do very well in Montana!
thanks for posting!

[LetsHelpAmerica]

We need more last minute calls into Montana!!!

[hills]

I just made a thread with this news. I think we posted at the sametime :D

[Ikasu]

Yea, I had a feeling Clinton would steal SD. Bill did some great campaigning there and gave an excellent breakdown of all her policies. I think he convinced many that Hillary is the right choice. Let's just hope it works out.

[ScottVA]

OH MY I FEEL SO EXPOSED........ LOOKING IN MY WINDOWS AND NOT SAYING HI :-) Well welcome! It's never too late to come to the sunny side of the Universe! LOL

[jgilmore]

Wow, the msm said she was closing in on South Dakote, but if she can take it, that will be so sweet.....Thanks for the good news

[ScottVA]

I'm going to get a moderator to merge your link though so don't feel like it disappeared there is another thread just like this one....

[Mrsawd]

Yes We all need to do what we can do help Get Hillary supporters out to Vote In Montana !

[Cooney]

Everyone send this out to our media contacts. Lets get this into the media tonight.

[philmwri]

Hopefully those polls are right and maybe her numbers in Montana will get better.

[joeysky18]

Merged.

[ScottVA]

Hopefully those polls are right and maybe her numbers in Montana will get better.

I think she sort of thinks MT isn't a win for her and she's been concentrating on SD to at least get a win in one of them! I DO KNOW she has great organization in MT though the MT Gov's bro is running things there for her campaign...

[ScottVA]

Merged.

thanks! :-)

[Bacio83]

Sure!...I was too excited to get this news out ..hence did not look if there was already an earlier dedicated thread!

Stop lurking! Join usssss :p

[Artists4Hillary]

OMG OMG OMG OMG :D:D:D:D:D:D:D I'm jumping up and down. This is tremendous!

[spdubois]

Didn't Brazile Nut say if the nomination was decided by Superdelegates she would quit the Democratic Party?

donna@brazileassociates.com

Lets remind her !!

[Santiago]

OMG OMG OMG OMG :D:D:D:D:D:D:D I'm jumping up and down. This is tremendous!

Me too.

[joeysky18]

The poll means nothing unless we can turn it into votes.


Please call SD & MT.

[hills]

OMG OMG OMG OMG :D:D:D:D:D:D:D I'm jumping up and down. This is tremendous!

Right now those number just represent hope but we can turn them to reality if we continue to reach out to people in these states. Get on the phones and call:)

[i hate nbc and cnn]

call both states cant take nothing for granted

[kyforhillary]

wow that is terrific! I heard yesterday she was closing in there. I have turned tv off today, couldn't stomach anymore.

[supra5677]

send it to hannity now!!

[supra5677]

send it to hannity now!!

[Mrs L]

WOW GREAT NEWS! Hillary can win in South Dakota and can do very well in Montana!
thanks for posting!


Oh please pray it is true and let's keep it our secret and let the MSM get egg on their faces.

[Artists4Hillary]

Right now those number just represent hope but we can turn them to reality if we continue to reach out to people in these states. Get on the phones and call:)

I'm still in PR ( in Cabo Rojo), so cannot call as much as I usually do. Please, someone make the calls for me and I'll donate a dollar for every call you make!

[Angelica91]

Oh please pray it is true and let's keep it our secret and let the MSM get egg on their faces.
I'm praying God every minutues! If tomorrow there will be the miracle I will die for happiness!

[eyedoc333]

Oh, this would be wonderful! Keep up the good work, everyone!

[Florida Dawn]

This is THE BEST NEWS! I am so happy.

You know, look at the MSM bulls*it this way: It galvanizes us Hillary supporters to get out there and FIGHT. Obama folks can figure it's all sewn up, according to the MSM, but we Hill fighters know better.

It will be a great day in the USA when Hillary carries SoDa!!! Yeay!

Come, South Dakota! Be a part of Hillary History!

[ShyFire]

I just heard it on CNN... no link to the poll that they are referring. Are you hearing the same? Clinton leads by 26!?

[lucky-ann]

they said this on cnn? really? where they crying? Just kidding LOL:D

[Area504]

woo-hoo!!!

[ScottVA]

Didn't Brazile Nut say if the nomination was decided by Superdelegates she would quit the Democratic Party?

donna@brazileassociates.com

Lets remind her !!

I made this exact comment the other day I wondered if she would quit now that it might come down to the SD's at the Convention... LOL

[ScottVA]

LOOK BELOW AT ANOTHER THREAD.... ARG POLLS that's where the 26 point lead came from....

[i hate nbc and cnn]

lets have 2 new hampshires tomorrow. nothing will be better then have donna brazilla and chris matthews shut up!!!

[joeysky18]

I don't believe it is true. CNN never has any good news for HIllary.

I think they try to set the expectation high for HRC just to stump her with their feet tomorrow after the result came out with a close margin.

Please stop and think before you believe anything on CNN. This is a psychological war game.

[ScottVA]

I don't believe it is true. CNN never has any good news for HIllary.

I think they try to set the expectation high for HRC just to stump her with their feet tomorrow after the result came out with a close margin.

That 26 point lead is from that SD ARG Poll that was just posted in another thread...

[mjno7777]

Let's keep OUR FOCUS ON SD AND MONTANA for ONE MORE DAY. Let's not get distracted. BLOG and PHONE.

[tcbwriter]

I haven't heard of any polls since May 21. That's not to say you're wrong because we all know the media doesn't repeat good news for Clinton. But I even searched on google and that's the last poll that pops up. :rolleyes:

[B positive]

All I'm gonna say is this:

Andrea Mitchell: "It's not over until someone wins where they're not supposed to."

[hipelayne]

I have been a lurker all this while. This is my first post on the forum. What a fab job you all are doing! I do reference a lot of thses posts on at Taylor Marsh

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

Montana
Democrats May 31-June 1

Clinton 44%
Obama 48%
Undecided 8%


South Dakota
Democrats May 31-June 1

Clinton 60%
Obama 34%
Undecided 6%

They may not be the most reliable but these results are beyond imagination especially a day before the primaries!!


Welcome to the forum - it's a great place to be!:)

[joeysky18]

That 26 point lead is from that SD ARG Poll that was just posted in another thread...

As I said, poll means nothing unless we can get votes.

Remember all the polls before NC had HRC neck-neck with BO, and the margin came out much closer.

They are doing it again. What we can do at this moment is to call SD & MT and get out the vote as much as we can. Ignore the polls.

[hipelayne]

I made this exact comment the other day I wondered if she would quit now that it might come down to the SD's at the Convention... LOL

I think she meant that only if the SD's nominated Hillary - of course if they nominate her chosen one that will be a different matter! :rolleyes:

[tcbwriter]

Okay, I happily stand corrected.

Here's the link to the poll results: http://americanresearchgroup.com/

WOO HOO!!

http://i252.photobucket.com/albums/hh8/tcbwriter/Clipart/DoinTheHappyDance.gif

[ScottVA]

As I said, poll means nothing unless we can get votes.

Remember all the polls before NC had HRC neck-neck with BO, and the margin came out much closer.

They are doing it again. What we can do at this moment is to call SD & MT and get out the vote as much as we can. Ignore the polls.

I NEVER did say the poll mattered! LOL I'm just saying that this is being discussed on another thread!

[lucky-ann]

I'm also very critical...ARG has a horrible reputation...but it surprises me that they talked about the poll on cnn...so they seem to take it seriously...

[ScottVA]

I'm also very critical...ARG has a horrible reputation...but it surprises me that they talked about the poll on cnn...so they seem to take it seriously...

I don't think CNN takes anything serious with regard to Clinton.... I would bet they will use this as some basis that if she doesn't achieve this now she lost LOL It's the same sh*t different day!

[Donald]

This poll is interesting...The media has been claiming that MO and SD were sure bets for Obama...Lets hope ARG has something right.. If Hillary wins, this will deflate Obama's victory/i am the nominee speech tommorow night.

[WV4Hillary]

Well..she has been focusing on SD...but..

What is it with Montana men? Why won't they vote for a woman?

Also...I'm not sure ARG is so great...BUT...they couldn't screw up that big of a lead - I mean even if they are 20 pts off she still wins.

Lastly...whoever keeps saying SEND IT TO THE MEDIA...please don't. It's better if everyone expects Obama to win - and he doesn't. Saying she has a 26 pt lead in a poll means a win in SD, even 10 pts, is now "bad" because she had a 26 pt lead. Think about it.

[ScottVA]

Well..she has been focusing on SD...but..

What is it with Montana men? Why won't they vote for a woman?

Also...I'm not sure ARG is so great...BUT...they couldn't screw up that big of a lead - I mean even if they are 20 pts off she still wins.

Lastly...whoever keeps saying SEND IT TO THE MEDIA...please don't. It's better if everyone expects Obama to win - and he doesn't. Saying she has a 26 pt lead in a poll means a win in SD, even 10 pts, is now "bad" because she had a 26 pt lead. Think about it.

Yeah I agree setting MSM high expectations for a Clinton win is on purpose (even if they are using a poll) Because if she doesn't get to the number then she lost is the story! LOL

[Alex01]

(Please forgive if repost or off-topic): Hillary just said on FOX News that she would not drop out or concede on Tuesday night (it might have been Wednesday night, I only caught the tail-end of it)!

Senator Hillary Clinton is going all the way to the White House!!:cool:

[mjoynaples]

The poll means nothing unless we can turn it into votes.


Please call SD & MT.

jobs, gas, economy, housing, wage equality, education, end no child left behind and provide college help with affordable payment plan on interest, the war in Iraq getting out with an understanding of our work in the entire region and those that we leave behind... and the situation in the stablity of our neighbors there...

I did email the lady about calls never heard back thought she was going to send scripts? and info??? for some reason been more reluctant with SD and MT do not feel know much about....

[ScottVA]

FOX just reported, Hillary says she is not ending anything, she is not satisfied with the way Florida and Michigan has been settled.


Is this true? Can someone confirm? I am expecting something of this sort to come out....

Yeah she was on the network..... I said Saturday that the DNC really screwed themselves with that MI ruling... it gives her a legitimate reason to go the Credentials Committee at the Convention (on that alone) LOL

[LucyTN]

I just watched a clip on CNN with Bill saying that this may well be his last speech for Hillary. I wish he wouldn't say such things without checking with her. It sounds to me like their at odds over this.

Another article on CNN said that all her workers are supposed to turn in their expenses in the next few days. Of course that came from "sources" and we have seen how they like to make it look like Hillary is out the door.

My hope is that Hillary will not, ever, make a deal with Obama for any of his piddly jobs, just for her to bow out gracefully. If she doesn't carry this to convention I will be greatly disappointed in her. And if they're thinking that giving her a token job will cause her supporters to go to his side, think again. I've already been as close to him as I ever plan to be.

[Alex01]

Welcome, Independent Visionary! Wow, there's lots of good news today.:)

[lalene]

what if we shock everyone with a win..? we don't have to send it out to the msm - don't want to set the expectations too high.

i think it would have a much greater impact.. everyone would be in awe of HRC and her supporters!

[Lodi]

Me too.

Me three!

I wonder who's being turned around. Maybe we have the decency and common sense of the SD native American population to thank for turning the vote toward the truth? Whoever you are: THANKS FOR WAKING UP!

[Angelica91]

When Do This Bomb Explode????:(

[ScottVA]

When Do This Bomb Explode????:(

We wish we knew LOL So do a lot of other people!

[Angelica91]

We wish we knew LOL So do a lot of other people!
Uff I'm tired! I want the bomb!:D
WHEN WHEN WHEN????

[ScottVA]

I just watched a clip on CNN with Bill saying that this may well be his last speech for Hillary. I wish he wouldn't say such things without checking with her. It sounds to me like their at odds over this.

Another article on CNN said that all her workers are supposed to turn in their expenses in the next few days. Of course that came from "sources" and we have seen how they like to make it look like Hillary is out the door.

My hope is that Hillary will not, ever, make a deal with Obama for any of his piddly jobs, just for her to bow out gracefully. If she doesn't carry this to convention I will be greatly disappointed in her. And if they're thinking that giving her a token job will cause her supporters to go to his side, think again. I've already been as close to him as I ever plan to be.


SEE NOW I TOOK THAT STATEMENT ANOTHER BY BILL....
I think what he meant is about the campaign in the Primary.... It's been a f*cked up affair to say the least.... and tomorrow is the last day of the Primary... you have to remember the campaign ends tomorrow for the Primary you start a new one for the Convention and into the GE.
I think that he was generalizing and didn't clarify it as pertaining to the Primary. I've seen this already reported on MSM (Yahoo News) LOL Didn't take long did it!

I CAN NOT imagine BILL telling her to quit he's a tough SOB and he'd fight this out too!

[ScottVA]

Uff I'm tired! I want the bomb!:D
WHEN WHEN WHEN????

Well it's 11pm by you say a funky prayer go to bed and get up and maybe it will be Christmas for us! LOL

[Angelica91]

Well it's 11pm by you say a funky prayer go to bed and get up and maybe it will be Christmas for us! LOL

AHAH OK! I pray every night and I am going to do it tonignt!
I hope God helps us and help Hillary! Because I'm very tired!
Here you all are so positive, I feel the black sheep of the "family"!

[Morgan]

I just heard it on CNN... no link to the poll that they are referring. Are you hearing the same? Clinton leads by 26!?

Great

[Suzan]

I'm not familiar with American Research. Are they reliable?

Geez, I'm afraid to believe polls! I'm going to go call SD and talk to those good folks. Join me, guys! Don't trust polls. Make some calls. You'll feel so much better.

I hope somebody's calling MT. The activate group I get my scripts from is calling SD.

[joeysky18]

Be careful with the poll. Remember NC. They misled us with the number showed HRC closing in on BO. When the result showed a wide margin, although as expected 2 weeks before, it was a big blow to the HRC supporter morale because the poll showed a tighter margin.

I think they are cooking the number again. Set an irrational high number, to kick us in the gut tomorrow.

Take it with a pinch of salt. Keep the high spirit, but don't let it create a fault hope.

[ScottVA]

I'm not familiar with American Research. Are they reliable?

Geez, I'm afraid to believe polls! I'm going to go call SD and talk to those good folks. Join me, guys! Don't trust polls. Make some calls. You'll feel so much better.

I hope somebody's calling MT. The activate group I get my scripts from is calling SD.


That's a good question.... In some of their polling they were pretty close to the final result.... but it's been the complete opposite in other cases... SO ITS HARD TO SAY


I WOULD HOWEVER not get too excited about that big SD lead.... I think it's a way for the MSM to use it against her if she doesn't win by that number...

[LetsHelpAmerica]

I'm not familiar with American Research. Are they reliable?

Geez, I'm afraid to believe polls! I'm going to go call SD and talk to those good folks. Join me, guys! Don't trust polls. Make some calls. You'll feel so much better.

I hope somebody's calling MT. The activate group I get my scripts from is calling SD.

Please, everyone call!!! We can have a profound impact on these last states!!

[ScottVA]

Please, everyone call!!! We can have a profound impact on these last states!!

I think her campaign is concentrating on SD ...

[hillguy08]

From my experience, I can tell that ARG polls tend to be pro-Hillary. My suggestion to you is to take 10pt away from Hillary and that'll probably be the accurate result. But I am confident that we can win South Dakota!

[hillton]

How accurate has ARG been in the past?

[hillguy08]

How accurate has ARG been in the past?

ARG
Indiana - Obama 45% Hillary 53%
North Carolina - Obama 50% Hillary 42%
Oregon - Obama 50% Hillary 45%

Actual
Indiana - Obama 49% Hillary 50%
North Carolina - Obama 56% Hillary 41%
Oregon - Obama 58% Hillary 40%

[Wyoming Dem]

Well..she has been focusing on SD...but..

What is it with Montana men? Why won't they vote for a woman?

Also...I'm not sure ARG is so great...BUT...they couldn't screw up that big of a lead - I mean even if they are 20 pts off she still wins.

Lastly...whoever keeps saying SEND IT TO THE MEDIA...please don't. It's better if everyone expects Obama to win - and he doesn't. Saying she has a 26 pt lead in a poll means a win in SD, even 10 pts, is now "bad" because she had a 26 pt lead. Think about it.
Bunch of old cowboys and farmers who STILL think women belong in the kitchen "barefoot & pregnant." Wyoming and Montana DO NOT, I repeat, DO NOT like "uppity" women, (which describes me & Hillary 2 A T!) I know those of you who have not spent much time in the west (and the West IS primarily Montana & Wyoming now) have no idea what a patriarchal society it still is. Men here call you. Missy, Little Girl, Sis, girly, and then there are the names I can't mention or Murray will make me dissapear and Optixmom will put me in the naughty chair.

[Meg]

wow!:eek: wasn't expecting those numbers!:D

[CriticalOne]

I must admit this has raised my spirits. It looks like she'll most certainly pull out a South Dakota win, and she may squeak out a Montana win or get very close. Given that these were supposed to be Obama states, I don't see how he could lose even one and gain superdelegate support, tomorrow.

Really, I was not expecting the South Dakota numbers, at all. She's really moved that state from being and Obama one to her solidly. I'm not sure I've ever seen her move her numbers that far from being down to being that far above the top. This will absolutely give her a reason to take this to the convention.

Obama simply can't be the nominee that the media has dubbed him for weaks, now, and losing BIG in states and territories both big and small.

Oh, and yes, American Research Group's polling tools usually gets her number just about right, but underestimates Obama's.

[CGP]

South Dakota looks good...

[CriticalOne]

It looks more than good. That is a comfortable enough lead to predict that she will sweep to victory in that state, tomorrow. I'm usually very hesitant of getting my hopes up over polls, but the sheer magnitude seperating them in this poll show something that would be hard for Obama to overcome in South Dakota.

I also suspect Montana will be much closer than what Mason-Dixon is giving Obama.

The grass-roots program Clinton has put together in South Dakota is something I'd wish we'd had in other Western and Southern state, earlier, if I have any criticism of how the campaign ran earlier in the year.

[Johnf]

New poll shows Clinton leading Obama in South Dakota
Jonathan Ellis • joellis@argusleader.com • June 2, 2008

A new independent poll released on the eve of South Dakota’s primary shows Hillary Clinton with a substantial lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.


Clinton leads among likely Democratic voters 60 percent to 34 percent for Obama, according to the American Research Group Inc., an independent polling company based in New Hampshire. Six percent were undecided.

Clinton has a large lead among women – 63 percent to 30 percent. Among men she leads 56 percent to 39 percent.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. The sample size, according to American Research Group, was a random sample of 600 Democratic voters likely to vote in the primary.



http://www.argusleader.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080602/UPDATES/80602041/-1/BEHINDTHECOUNTER

[Johnf]

Was Obama Supposed To Win South Dakota?
By Justin Gardner
Hillary, South Dakota
A meme has started that has the potential to hurt Obama tomorrow given that he was supposed to win South Dakota…at least according to PoliticalWire.

So how did this start? Well, there was a poll conducted in late March/early April by Dakota Wesleyan University that found Obama leading Hillary by 12 points (46 to 34). Here’s what they found at the time…


The poll of 527 North and South Dakota voters conducted from March 24 to April 3 indicated that 46 percent of South Dakota Democrats would vote for Obama in the upcoming June 3 primary, 34 percent for Clinton, and 10 percent are undecided. Of the remaining 10 percent, 6 percent said they would not vote and 4 percent said they would vote for someone else.

If you’re raising an eyebrow at the 20% undecided number, I’m right there with you, but this is the only thing I can find that supports the idea that Obama somehow had South Dakota locked up. There’s nothing else.

Fast forward to today, where American Research Group finds Hillary WAY out ahead in their latest poll, 60 to 34. Obviously I put much more faith in this ARG poll, considering it’s coming out 1 day before the primary and only has 6% undecided.

So, question to all of you…if Hill wins tomorrow in South Dakota, will that be a big upset?

http://donklephant.com/2008/06/02/was-obama-supposed-to-win-south-dakota/

[Lodi]

Bunch of old cowboys and farmers who STILL think women belong in the kitchen "barefoot & pregnant." Wyoming and Montana DO NOT, I repeat, DO NOT like "uppity" women, (which describes me & Hillary 2 A T!) I know those of you who have not spent much time in the west (and the West IS primarily Montana & Wyoming now) have no idea what a patriarchal society it still is. Men here call you. Missy, Little Girl, Sis, girly, and then there are the names I can't mention or Murray will make me dissapear and Optixmom will put me in the naughty chair.

How about the cowboy poets? The ones I knew in the s.w. Texas desert were enlightened (which is why I always resented the press's comparison of Bush with cowboys). Anyway, this "in the kitchen" attitude pervades NV to a certain extent, too. It was certainly apparent in rural, remote TX. Except for the cowboy poets.

[Lodi]

Candle lighting, anyone? ;)

www.gratefulness.org

[Johnf]

Last Primaries: Close in Montana, Clinton Way Ahead in S.D.
June 2, 2008 2:09 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

So, will a split decision tomorrow in Montana and South Dakota - or two Hillary Clinton wins - just further muddy end endgame for the Democrats, coming on the heels of Clinton's victory in Puerto Rico. One poll forecasts the possibility of such a split. In polls conducted May 31-June 1, American Research Group says Barack Obama leads Clinton in Montana 48 percent to 44 percent with 8 percent undecided. But that's right on the survey's 4 point margin of error. In South Dakota, Clinton leads 60 percent to 34 percent.

Obama leads Clinton 56 percent to 35 percent among men voters in Montana (45 percent of the sample) while Clinton leads among women 52 percent to 41 percent. Flip that male coin in South Dakota where Clinton leads among men 56 percent to 39 percent (46 percent of likely voters) and 63 percent to 29 percent among women.

Along with a SD victory for Hillary, in two states Obama was to have won. He's lost most of the last elections, with exception of Oregon.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/06/last-primaries-close-in-montan.html

America is speaking.

[PuppyDogMom]

Now wouldn't that be fun for Donna B. spin? Oh, yeah.

Hillary could get both. And even if MT is close, it's something that BO was supposed to win big, right?

Oh, how sweet!

[RayinAR]

Last Primaries: Close in Montana, Clinton Way Ahead in S.D.
June 2, 2008 2:09 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)



Along with a SD victory for Hillary, in two states Obama was to have won. He's lost most of the last elections, with exception of Oregon.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/06/last-primaries-close-in-montan.html

America is speaking.

It is good news John but if I am not mistaken there was a poll in NC that had NC within 4pts at the end and that was way off. I hope it is right but I won't hold my breath. It would be awesome to have another NH.

[Donald]

If we could get those men to go to Hillary......

[Johnf]

It is good news John but if I am not mistaken there was a poll in NC that had NC within 4pts at the end and that was way off. I hope it is right but I won't hold my breath. It would be awesome to have another NH.

What is interesting as these states were supposed to be Obama's turf, and the trends are they're moving away from obama. If Hillary wins in these two states, this is a very big upset............................................. ..

[CriticalOne]

Everyone keeps referencing the polls showing Hillary closing in North Carolina, but we must forget that the only reason Obama was saved was because the black turnout was higher than expected. There are no demographics in either of the last two states that could rally to produce a huge win for Obama in either.

I think we're going to find these polls much closer than what some of us skeptics may have thought. Montana and South Dakota are not North Carolina.

[hillguy08]

Everyone keeps referencing the polls showing Hillary closing in North Carolina, but we must forget that the only reason Obama was saved was because the black turnout was higher than expected. There are no demographics in either of the last two states that could rally to produce a huge win for Obama in either.

I think we're going to find these polls much closer than what some of us skeptics may have thought. Montana and South Dakota are not North Carolina.

Well, if you discount the black turnout, we can ask ourselves how we lost a lot of the western states.

It is good news John but if I am not mistaken there was a poll in NC that had NC within 4pts at the end and that was way off. I hope it is right but I won't hold my breath. It would be awesome to have another NH.

Yeap, and that NC poll which had them within 4pts was conducted by... you guessed it, ARG. They usually get Hillary's numbers right, but Obama's numbers are wayy off so don't expect a MO win. I'm sure we'll have a victory in SD tho.

Here's to show just how accurate ARG is. :rolleyes:

ARG
Indiana - Obama 45% Hillary 53%
North Carolina - Obama 50% Hillary 42%
Oregon - Obama 50% Hillary 45%

Actual
Indiana - Obama 49% Hillary 50%
North Carolina - Obama 56% Hillary 41%
Oregon - Obama 58% Hillary 40%

[Johnf]

If we could get those men to go to Hillary......


post on their websites, anyone in the area that can call them up.

[hipelayne]

Was Obama Supposed To Win South Dakota?
By Justin Gardner
Hillary, South Dakota


http://donklephant.com/2008/06/02/was-obama-supposed-to-win-south-dakota/

Well - it will be a big upset for Obama! I just commented over at this site - they are bringing out the Roe v Wade argument! These people are so desperate!

[skc1976]

I'd love to see her pull off both primaries. That would put him on a losing streak and have lost 10 out of the last 13 primaries, and only winning 1 caucus by 7 votes. That should cause the democrats to sweat quite a bit. Usually the "nominee" gains strength, not loses it.

GO HILLARY!

[Johnf]

A Clinton Blowout in South Dakota?
by Steve Kornacki | June 2, 2008 | Tags: PoliticsAmerican Research

Getty Images
Clinton campaigns in South Dakota.On the eve of the final pair of Democratic primaries, a new poll of South Dakota Democrats gives Hillary Clinton a 26-point lead over Barack Obama – a surprise, at least to me, in a state that had the early makings of an Obama stronghold.

The survey, from the independent New Hampshire-based American Research Group, shows Clinton pounding Obama by a 60-34 percent spread. The only previous poll in the state, from about a month ago, had Obama up by 12. Because every other state around South Dakota previously went overwhelmingly for Obama, there had been little expectation in the national press that Clinton would win there.

Not surprisingly, the ARG poll is being greeted with some skepticism. But in a phone conversation a few minutes ago, Dick Bennett, ARG's president, told me that the assumption that South Dakota is Obama country has been flawed from the start.

"The numbers we got are consistent with what we've seen in other states," Bennett said. "The groups that are usually supporting her are supporting her. The people who live there look more like Clinton voters than Obama voters."

Bennett pointed out that South Dakota is a closed primary, meaning that only registered Democrats can participate: "So the turnout is going to be lower. The bonus votes that Barack Obama has been getting among independents? They're not going to be able to turn out. When you look at the other states that are like this, Hillary Clinton has done very well."

Bennett also noted South Dakota’s large Native American population, its high median age and low number of college graduates, factors that also work in Clinton's favor. And then there's the gender issue.

"I talked to our supervisors [at the polling center] on Saturday and asked them what was happening, and they said that it's women – they're just not ready to let Clinton go," he said.

Bennett said he's surprised that anyone would be surprised by his findings. When I pointed out that every states that borders South Dakota – North Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, and Wyoming – has sided with Obama (often by overwhelming numbers) he replied: "Those weren't primaries. Those were caucuses."

The results from Nebraska's non-binding May 13 primary suggest there is something to this line of thinking. In that primary, with turnout three times higher than in the state's February caucuses, Obama won by just two points. In the caucuses, his margin was 36 points. Still, he did win. Could he really be trailing by 26 points in South Dakota?

"Could it be the sample size?" Bennett asked. "I guess. But we broke the sample up over two days, and we didn't see any great shifts."

If the numbers do prove true, Bennett said it's not a sign of any broad shift toward Clinton and away from Obama among Democrats, since they are both performing as well (or poorly) as they usually do among various demographic groups. But it would mean that national political observers (myself included) have badly misread the demographics of South Dakota.

A big South Dakota win for Clinton could, depending on the outcome in Montana, also shift the popular-vote math in her favor, allowing her to claim a victory without counting Michigan (although she would still have to exclude caucus states like Iowa, in which no official popular vote tally was maintained but where more Democrats clearly preferred Obama).

http://www.observer.com/2008/clinton-blowout-south-dakota

[CriticalOne]

Well, if you discount the black turnout, we can ask ourselves how we lost a lot of the western states.

One word: caucus. If I recall wright, South Dakota and Montana are the only Mountain West and Great Plains states to have a primary. I'm not predicting a win in Montana, but I'm definitely feeling good about one in South Dakota. Even for ARG, it would have taken some astronomical polling blunder for Obama to overcome such a huge poll disparity. This isn't some 10-15% lead that can easily be overturned on voting day.

[Mrsawd]

This would be so nice Hillary wins both states
and then If we could write Delegates and sd 's and ask them to help make the wrong right that DNC pulled the other day !

Show they are True American that Care and really want Unity !!
Come To Hillary for the sake Of our Country !

[Johnf]

Now, we can understand why so many lies, and negative campaigning by the Obama group these last couple of days - the controversy attacks have stepped up again against Hillary. Obama fears losing this one. This will be big, especially after PR, especially after voters feeling cheated out of MI and FL.

He was expecting to win SD. He isn't goign to win it. He must be losing his mind tonight. You know he's going to come up with the spin, expect the spin and be prepared for it. Anticipate it, come up with our own - against his; he's going to really try to pressure Hillary out tomorrow when he loses...AGAIN. That's OB's MO. He's a loser, and that's what losers do. They intimidate, threaten, coerce, bully....he had great teachers. By the way, how is Rezko doing today?

[CriticalOne]

I believe Obama is declared to announced his victory, tomorrow in the Twin Cities, one state over from South Dakota. Really, how ironic would that be?

[MaryKay]

Everyone keeps referencing the polls showing Hillary closing in North Carolina, but we must forget that the only reason Obama was saved was because the black turnout was higher than expected. There are no demographics in either of the last two states that could rally to produce a huge win for Obama in either.

I think we're going to find these polls much closer than what some of us skeptics may have thought. Montana and South Dakota are not North Carolina.

Not to mention the fact they counted his votes twice in a few counties... and who knows how many more did as well...

[Mrsawd]

I have been Hearing all day that Obama is Planning on claiming Victory Wednesday !

[Johnf]

I believe Obama is declared to announced his victory, tomorrow in the Twin Cities, one state over from South Dakota. Really, how ironic would that be?

It's hype, he's hoping to demoralize Hillary supporters......We have his number.

[skc1976]

One other thing, in regards to Montana, undecideds tend to go Clinton's way. She may be able to make up some ground with that 8% still out!

[skc1976]

Be careful with the poll. Remember NC. They misled us with the number showed HRC closing in on BO. When the result showed a wide margin, although as expected 2 weeks before, it was a big blow to the HRC supporter morale because the poll showed a tighter margin.

I think they are cooking the number again. Set an irrational high number, to kick us in the gut tomorrow.

Take it with a pinch of salt. Keep the high spirit, but don't let it create a fault hope.

There were two factors that hurt Clinton in NC:

1) Early voting was very favorable for Obama.
2) Very strong AA support, higher than expected, especially as polls closed in.

[Bacio83]

Well, if you discount the black turnout, we can ask ourselves how we lost a lot of the western states.



Yeap, and that NC poll which had them within 4pts was conducted by... you guessed it, ARG. They usually get Hillary's numbers right, but Obama's numbers are wayy off so don't expect a MO win. I'm sure we'll have a victory in SD tho.

Here's to show just how accurate ARG is. :rolleyes:

ARG
Indiana - Obama 45% Hillary 53%
North Carolina - Obama 50% Hillary 42%
Oregon - Obama 50% Hillary 45%

Actual
Indiana - Obama 49% Hillary 50%
North Carolina - Obama 56% Hillary 41%
Oregon - Obama 58% Hillary 40%

Yeah but you have to take undecideds and error margin for the polls.

ARG

Indiana - (2% undecideds)
NC- BO (8% undecideds)

Oregon - (2% undecideds)

I'll say this they've just about nailed HRC's votes but underestimated BO's votes. For what it's worth.

But they've been right in regards to who wins if that says anything.

[floorrunner]

I just watched a clip on CNN with Bill saying that this may well be his last speech for Hillary. I wish he wouldn't say such things without checking with her. It sounds to me like their at odds over this.

Another article on CNN said that all her workers are supposed to turn in their expenses in the next few days. Of course that came from "sources" and we have seen how they like to make it look like Hillary is out the door.

My hope is that Hillary will not, ever, make a deal with Obama for any of his piddly jobs, just for her to bow out gracefully. If she doesn't carry this to convention I will be greatly disappointed in her. And if they're thinking that giving her a token job will cause her supporters to go to his side, think again. I've already been as close to him as I ever plan to be.

He actually said "This kind of campaign." I interpret that as the primary season is over after this.

[ScottVA]

He actually said "This kind of campaign." I interpret that as the primary season is over after this.

EXACTLY! This is what I took from that comment too! The MSM just love to take things and make anything out of them Silly B*astards...

[wulf12]

Looks like South Dakota is in the bag. That's a huge margin, hopefully she can win it big, 20-25 pts.

Don't know what's the matter with Montana though. But I think we can pull it out.

[hillary4change]

Both states are Repub. We have a chance in S.D but not likely in MT.
bo has been favored in these states forever.
But if we work hard enough we can keep closing the gap!