Electoral College Update

[philmwri]

Here is my estimates for right now.

Obama 264
McCain 263

McCain has closed the gap a lot.:)

[jlynne]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Currently
Obama 275
McCain 250
Ties 13 (Virginia)

Shows NV and CO as weak Republican states

[Amy Dugan]

Fox going to talk about this coming up

[philmwri]

Obama is ahead at electoral-vote by only 1 point and Indiana voted 60% for Bush back in 2004 so it's not exactly and liberal state and Mccain is most likely to win Virginia which is becoming more blue but is filled with military people who aren't going to see eye to eye with Obama.:)

[WV4Hillary]

Yeah...Electoral vote seems accurate except that:

Indiana hasn't been polled in 2 months. It voted for Bush by a 20 point margin, it's not going to suddenly go blue. They have it as weak Dem.

Virginia isn't a tie: it will most likely go McCain.

Count those two factos, McCain wins. But as I continue to caution, Colorado WILL decide.

[Amy Dugan]

Rove's Update 6:15 pm est 8/15


260 Obama
194 McCain
84 Toss ups



I thought McCain had the same states as Bush except NM, CO, IA but he looks like he is behind more than I like. Why push SDs to vote for her on the floor if Obama and Hillary could safely beat McCain by looking at this????? If it was McCain 10 behind

[writerchick]

Currently
Obama 275
McCain 250
Ties 13 (Virginia)

Shows NV and CO as weak Republican states

Electoral-vote guy (who I believe was originally an HRC supporter) had Obama in the mid 300's for a while. This is very good.

[philmwri]

I don't know why they have Indiana as weak Democrat.That state is Weak Republican McCain is much more popular than Bush he may also get 55-60% of the votes there in the fall.

Virginia is going to slide McCain.Virginia is about 20% black that is the only reason why the polling shows near tie in Virginia.Bush won Virginia by 9 points.I am sure that McCain can get a 5-10 point win there.

States like Oregon have McCain have Oregon within 3 pointsof Obama.That is a good sign for Obama that a state that he won in the primaries may not deliever for him this fall.He should be at least 10 point ahead in a state like Oregon.:)

[Amy Dugan]

I don't know why they have Indiana as weak Democrat.That state is Weak Republican McCain is much more popular than Bush he may also get 55-60% of the votes there in the fall.

Virginia is going to slide McCain.Virginia is about 20% black that is the only reason why the polling shows near tie in Virginia.Bush won Virginia by 9 points.I am sure that McCain can get a 5-10 point win there.

States like Oregon have McCain have Oregon within 3 pointsof Obama.That is a good sign for Obama that a state that he won in the primaries may not deliever for him this fall.He should be at least 10 point ahead in a state like Oregon.:)

IN prediction is based on Dem turnout in the primary VERY high. I canvassed there 3 weekends and many people were Repubs just voting Dem in primary (scared of Obama or simply following Rush's orders). So IN will be Red as they vote McCain in Nov like they told me they would

[RE:]

IN prediction is based on Dem turnout in the primary VERY high. I canvassed there 3 weekends and many people were Repubs just voting Dem in primary (scared of Obama or simply following Rush's orders). So IN will be Red as they vote McCain in Nov like they told me they would

Just a reminder...17 year olds were able to vote in the primary and a portion of them will not be able to vote in the general.

http://www.floydcounty.in.gov/PDF/8PINFLOYdemY2.pdf

Could be why the results were so differant than the polling. I don't think the pollsters picked up on the 17 year olds.

:Ed

[ssmith]

I don't know why they have Indiana as weak Democrat.That state is Weak Republican McCain is much more popular than Bush he may also get 55-60% of the votes there in the fall.

Virginia is going to slide McCain.Virginia is about 20% black that is the only reason why the polling shows near tie in Virginia.Bush won Virginia by 9 points.I am sure that McCain can get a 5-10 point win there.

States like Oregon have McCain have Oregon within 3 pointsof Obama.That is a good sign for Obama that a state that he won in the primaries may not deliever for him this fall.He should be at least 10 point ahead in a state like Oregon.:)


VA will stay red... they are assuming northern VA, which is very diverse will deliver VA...it won;t although northern VA, where I live, is diverse, it is very military rich... and also the Oba-fever is not so much there anymore.. I have friends who voted in feb primaries for that fraud.. now going to mccain

[Bad Kitty]

Maybe it's just me, but I honestly don't think that they are even that close in the electoral college. I have reason to believe that he is probably getting a spanking from McCain right now.

[ssmith]

Maybe it's just me, but I honestly don't think that they are even that close in the electoral college. I have reason to believe that he is probably getting a spanking from McCain right now.

I agree with you... I get the sense Rove is keeping the fraud afloat so that Hillary has NO chance of being the nominee.. I think as soon as the fraud becomes the official nominee... rove will tell the truth .... and go all out against the fraud.. and reveal the real numbers of mccain being ahead..

[Bella]

Yeah...Electoral vote seems accurate except that:

Indiana hasn't been polled in 2 months. It voted for Bush by a 20 point margin, it's not going to suddenly go blue. They have it as weak Dem.

Virginia isn't a tie: it will most likely go McCain.

Count those two factos, McCain wins. But as I continue to caution, Colorado WILL decide.

I think so too. They are going to go after the Southwest. I read somewhere that Obama isn't opening new offices in GA and there is a small amount. I think that's where the clues will be. Keep an eye on where he opens new campaign offices and you'll know where the battleground states are. GA will be red of course.

[Bad Kitty]

I agree with you... I get the sense Rove is keeping the fraud afloat so that Hillary has NO chance of being the nominee.. I think as soon as the fraud becomes the official nominee... rove will tell the truth .... and go all out against the fraud.. and reveal the real numbers of mccain being ahead..

Yep and the poor idiotic DNC will fall flat on their faces.

[foxyladi]

Just a reminder...17 year olds were able to vote in the primary and a portion of them will not be able to vote in the general.

http://www.floydcounty.in.gov/PDF/8PINFLOYdemY2.pdf

Could be why the results were so differant than the polling. I don't think the pollsters picked up on the 17 year olds.

:Ed

THE 17 YEAR OLDS COULD VOTE BUT ONLY IF THEY WOULD BE 18 BY THE G.E.

[carmaken]

Yeah...Electoral vote seems accurate except that:

Indiana hasn't been polled in 2 months. It voted for Bush by a 20 point margin, it's not going to suddenly go blue. They have it as weak Dem.

Virginia isn't a tie: it will most likely go McCain.

Count those two factos, McCain wins. But as I continue to caution, Colorado WILL decide.

They were pretty much neck and neck here in Indiana. This, of course will not show up on national polls. I was a local Evansville News 14 poll.

[Kbentleyis]

I just don't believe these states are being polled correctly. Just my opinion. Those 17 going to be 18 before November 4... will they vote? And, will they reflect the 20% drop already in the youth vote? Talk about testing ourselves. There is so much info to go over.

[Annie]

Just a reminder...17 year olds were able to vote in the primary and a portion of them will not be able to vote in the general.

http://www.floydcounty.in.gov/PDF/8PINFLOYdemY2.pdf

Could be why the results were so differant than the polling. I don't think the pollsters picked up on the 17 year olds.

:Ed

Interesting so many 17 year olds voting in the primary and probably as nobody was asking for identification in certain areas probably a lot were not even 17 plus the criminals and dead people voting..... Zombies I guess.

However don't think McCain will win - Obama(Barry) whatever his name is - games the system big time as we know and it will be even a bigger gaming for the General.

[skc1976]

I think that Virginia will go red when all is said and done. As I've said before, Warner running for Senate helps Obama and gives him a bump. What I've been working on is pushing the "split ticket" idea. Vote McCain for President and Warner for Senate. Seems to be going over well.

The keys will be if SWVA comes out big for McCain and those Hillary supporters go for McCain over Obama. (I hate to say it, but they probably want a veteran than a black man.) And the other key will be the black vote and how big it comes out. Richmond and Tidewater will be key there.

In regards to Indiana, I think the bump there is coming from all the Bayh talk. If he picks him for VP, then McCain needs to pluck a state or two from Obama in return.

[Agent 00½ FL]

I just don't believe these states are being polled correctly. Just my opinion. Those 17 going to be 18 before November 4... will they vote? And, will they reflect the 20% drop already in the youth vote? Talk about testing ourselves. There is so much info to go over.

This is definately going to scew their data. I remember myself as a first time voter. I registered but don't remember voting in the GE. Am I the only one?