You guys will think im crazy, But i think mccain will win big

[happyfeetprod]

Okay maybe not big but bigger then bush in 04.. let me explain

polls skewed in favor of obama - If you look at a lot of the polls out there, anywhere between 70-75 percent of voters being polled are registered democrats and independents. meaning only 25-30 percent are republican meaning 75 percent of the people polled could be favored towards obama. WHY is this?

Since bush more then 1 million republicans have left the party. THIS IS TRUE.. however what many don't factor in is that JUST because there's less republicans, DOES NOT mean there's less consv in this country. Many consv in 2006 stayed home as punishment for the republican controlled congress because of immigration policies and spending etc.. We are EASILY under polled by 4 POINT margin.. Those consv that aren't being counted as republicans in the polling will ALL go towards mccain.

Bradley Affect A "friend" of mine asked me a few days ago who am I voting for, and me not wanting to start a fight over politics because it could get ugly (she's a big obama supporter) I told her I will vote for obama. Well, the first thing im doing nov 4th is going to vote for mccain. I just dont feel like being called a racist. i think in polls SEVERAL points as low as 2 points and as high as 4 points are being skewed by the bradly affect. (for anyone who doesnt know what Bradley affect is, its basically voters telling polling people that they'll vote for the black candidate when they have no intention of doing so just so they don't get labeled a racist) meaning just because of the Bradley affect he's polling anywhere from 2-4 points higher then he actually is.

Polls in general

As many pumas supporters know first hand, Obama did much better in polls then he did in actual election nights. Why? Bad polling data, bradly effect, and what many don't realize is many of the polls being done, Zogby , Cbs, assocaited press, time warner,newsweek, Cnn ,mbc, these polls are being done BY PRO obama networks/org.. In short, mccain and obama are playing a game in which the scoring is being done by judges who are blatantly pro one sided.. in this case pro obama..

Southern States The ONLY reason obama won against Hillary (although Hillary got more votes and obama cheated) is because of SOUTHERN states.. like north Carolina for example or Georgia.. When he went against Hillary, 50 percent of the dem voters in those states were AFRICAN AMERICAN. 90 percent of which voted for obama.. When 90 percent of 50 voters go one way Hillary had NO CHANCE in those states (talk about voting based on race). However Those southern states that obama won? he will LOSE in the general election. MEANING for him to win, he cant compete in the strong states that went for him against Hillary because those he will lose to mccain, BUT IN HES WEAKEST states that he lost to Hillary, Ohio, Michigan, PA, Florida.

Palin factor

The palin factor has energized MANY consv republicans and good amount of independents towards mccain. He has brought life to his campaign and palin gaved to what mccain what he didn't have before. ENERGY and EXCITMENT!

Pumas The great pumas! you pumas are going to truly make the difference in key states. On Ohio and PA and Michigan and Wisconsin. You will bring mccain/palin home.


Some wild cards The media is pro obama, and will do ANYTHING and i mean ANYTHING it can to get obama elected, they felt they didn't do enough for Kerry so this time its all out war. This is the wild card that helps obama big time. Will see how this has an affect on obama.


Anyway I predict that mccain will lose iowa and probebly either NM or colorado. BUT he will win PA Michigan and wiscon or a combination of these states that will bring him and palin the presidency.

Any thoughts welcome!

[Horizon]

Pumas The great pumas! you pumas are going to truly make the difference in key states. On Ohio and PA and Michigan and Wisconsin. You will bring mccain/palin home.

That's our plan!!! Thank you for recognizing our contribution.We are working hard for an Obama loss of EPIC proportions!!!

[mjno7777]

That's our plan!!! Thank you for recognizing our contribution.We are working hard for an Obama loss of EPIC proportions!!!

With 45 days left I don't want to take anything or any state for granted.

[happyfeetprod]

and by the way, whatever of my analysis.. WE HAVE TO FIGHT like were 5 points behind..

[ezrider409]

With 45 days left I don't want to take anything or any state for granted.

Here's an idea...anyone here who gets polled responds as Obama supporters.
Then stick with plan B and vote McCain/Palin. Since pollsters like to muck up the numbers let's skunk up ALL the polls BIGTIME. And God willing if BO tanks in Nov. the sweeter the fall since his poll numbers were artificially elevated. So PUMA the polls and scratch em all up silly!

[Spagpusher]

Not so sure I agree with that, ezrider. You could have those out there who see these polls and think, "well, if most of the country trusts Obama, why shouldn't I?" Personally, I would never vote based on something like that, but there are some very easily influenced people out there. If I get a chance to answer a poll call (doubtful since I use a cell phone) ... I'll definitely be speaking out for McCain/Palin.

[AnnaB]

Thanks for the positive post! I hope we all step it up and contribute to McCain's landslide.

[Bad Kitty]

Happyfeet I see him winning big too. I think there are people in many state's who will give this to McCain b/c of buyer's remorse they feel after voting for BO.

[SantaCruzen]

All the Crazy people here think BHO is a Winner. So, you better be right for my sanity.

[CountryFirst]

Obama's toast.

He should be way ahead, but he can't close the deal.

He's got no substance that he can actually share with the American people.

The facade is wearing thin.

[Annie]

With 45 days left I don't want to take anything or any state for granted.

Exactly.

We also have to look at the Republican women who were going to vote for Hillary in the General - they have no reason to vote Democratic now and they will vote for McCain/Palin.... Her interview yesterday and tonight ws excellent. And she spoke of Hillary in a very good way.... She really admires her. As did Trump who has come out for McCain /Palin officially today and of course Lynn de Rothschild and the latest -Miguel D. Lausell, a Puerto Rican supporter of Hillary - all crossing over to McCain/Palin.

This is a snowball.... Important thing is they all admire Hillary and would be voting for that ticket if she were on it.... not sure if she were vp....but if she were head of it.... and that is what is going to make the difference in the General.... But we must not sit back - we have to keep up the good fight for this country over party.

p.s. Also remember all those voters who said they wanted their votes back after the first bit of Wright news began coming out....? I suspect there could be a percentage of them who will either not vote or just vote downticket and vote McCain...... 'tis a possibility.

[motown_steve]

Since bush more then 1 million republicans have left the party. THIS IS TRUE.. however what many don't factor in is that JUST because there's less republicans, DOES NOT mean there's less consv in this country. Many consv in 2006 stayed home as punishment for the republican controlled congress because of immigration policies and spending etc.. We are EASILY under polled by 4 POINT margin.. Those consv that aren't being counted as republicans in the polling will ALL go towards mccain.

Quoted for truth.

Most of those conservatives have seen what staying home on election day will do, as we saw in 2006. They also see Obama as what he is: The Worst Case Scenario for America, and especially for conservatism in America. They won't be sitting this one out, and only a handful of the Ron Paul crowd is going to go for Bob Barr.

[VANITY4HILLARY]

Happyfeet I see him winning big too. I think there are people in many state's who will give this to McCain b/c of buyer's remorse they feel after voting for BO.

i really wish it was true.I dont think any of u should think so positive because u will only hurt urself in the end.

[Den2006]

Republicans always do better on election day than in the polls.

[lynfreedom]

we cannot underestimate his organization. He will have buses picking up high school students, have colleges registering people, oh they will be able to vote same day, which is going to hurt, have people picking up absentee ballots, which should not be done but has already been reported.

There is not going to be anything easy or fair about this, especially if people do not get involved because they think he is going to win and BO is going to lose.

[Brooke]

Not so sure I agree with that, ezrider. You could have those out there who see these polls and think, "well, if most of the country trusts Obama, why shouldn't I?" Personally, I would never vote based on something like that, but there are some very easily influenced people out there. If I get a chance to answer a poll call (doubtful since I use a cell phone) ... I'll definitely be speaking out for McCain/Palin.

Good point, but I think most Americans are smart enough to make their own decisions about the polls.

happyfeetprod, great analysis! I hope you're right.

[erasmus]

Usually at this stage of the cycle the democrat would have to be 10 points ahead. Factor in Bradley/Wilder and Obama would have to be outscoring his opponent by 15 points. In short I agree completely with the OP.

[abw11]

Lots can happen in the next month or so.

I think we need to keep working all the way through 4 Nov.

This election is especially hard to poll accurately.

[Brooke]

Honestly, I don't see things getting better for Obama down the stretch. He's got 3 debates with McCain and those are going to be very difficult for him. He struggled against Hillary and McCain is just as formidable, if not more, than she was.

I hope he's getting some speech lessons because the "uhhss" and pregnant pauses only remind voters that he sounds like Bush.

What I'm worried about right now is the current crisis on Wall Street. It reminds people of the economy and how a Republican has presided over it the past 8 years and look where it's gotten us. I think the reason Obama's poll numbers are a bit up this week is because of that. But I'm not full fledged worried about it.

[G4Hillary]

Okay maybe not big but bigger then bush in 04.. let me explain

polls skewed in favor of obama - If you look at a lot of the polls out there, anywhere between 70-75 percent of voters being polled are registered democrats and independents. meaning only 25-30 percent are republican meaning 75 percent of the people polled could be favored towards obama. WHY is this?

Since bush more then 1 million republicans have left the party. THIS IS TRUE.. however what many don't factor in is that JUST because there's less republicans, DOES NOT mean there's less consv in this country. Many consv in 2006 stayed home as punishment for the republican controlled congress because of immigration policies and spending etc.. We are EASILY under polled by 4 POINT margin.. Those consv that aren't being counted as republicans in the polling will ALL go towards mccain.

Bradley Affect A "friend" of mine asked me a few days ago who am I voting for, and me not wanting to start a fight over politics because it could get ugly (she's a big obama supporter) I told her I will vote for obama. Well, the first thing im doing nov 4th is going to vote for mccain. I just dont feel like being called a racist. i think in polls SEVERAL points as low as 2 points and as high as 4 points are being skewed by the bradly affect. (for anyone who doesnt know what Bradley affect is, its basically voters telling polling people that they'll vote for the black candidate when they have no intention of doing so just so they don't get labeled a racist) meaning just because of the Bradley affect he's polling anywhere from 2-4 points higher then he actually is.

Polls in general

As many pumas supporters know first hand, Obama did much better in polls then he did in actual election nights. Why? Bad polling data, bradly effect, and what many don't realize is many of the polls being done, Zogby , Cbs, assocaited press, time warner,newsweek, Cnn ,mbc, these polls are being done BY PRO obama networks/org.. In short, mccain and obama are playing a game in which the scoring is being done by judges who are blatantly pro one sided.. in this case pro obama..

Southern States The ONLY reason obama won against Hillary (although Hillary got more votes and obama cheated) is because of SOUTHERN states.. like north Carolina for example or Georgia.. When he went against Hillary, 50 percent of the dem voters in those states were AFRICAN AMERICAN. 90 percent of which voted for obama.. When 90 percent of 50 voters go one way Hillary had NO CHANCE in those states (talk about voting based on race). However Those southern states that obama won? he will LOSE in the general election. MEANING for him to win, he cant compete in the strong states that went for him against Hillary because those he will lose to mccain, BUT IN HES WEAKEST states that he lost to Hillary, Ohio, Michigan, PA, Florida.

Palin factor

The palin factor has energized MANY consv republicans and good amount of independents towards mccain. He has brought life to his campaign and palin gaved to what mccain what he didn't have before. ENERGY and EXCITMENT!

Pumas The great pumas! you pumas are going to truly make the difference in key states. On Ohio and PA and Michigan and Wisconsin. You will bring mccain/palin home.


Some wild cards The media is pro obama, and will do ANYTHING and i mean ANYTHING it can to get obama elected, they felt they didn't do enough for Kerry so this time its all out war. This is the wild card that helps obama big time. Will see how this has an affect on obama.


Anyway I predict that mccain will lose iowa and probebly either NM or colorado. BUT he will win PA Michigan and wiscon or a combination of these states that will bring him and palin the presidency.

Any thoughts welcome!
You are correct about everything, especially about the media trying to get Obama elected. Today for example, "trooper gate" continues to be on the front page of CNN. I am amazed that something so irrelevant would be given so much attention.

This will be mostly uphill for McCain because most of the media is stacked firmly in favor of Obama.

But I think you are right and that Americans will see through MSM lies and deception.

Good signs this week:
Wisconsin and Minnesota became toss ups. If McCain can take a decent lead in either one of the two, I think this will be over soon.

I fully expect McCain to win Ohio. The latest poll in Iowa shows a tie. Pennsylvania is looking very competitive. These are all good signs.

Now if McCain can wrap up Virginia, Indiana, and Nevada we will be on a clear path to victory.

[G4Hillary]

Here's an idea...anyone here who gets polled responds as Obama supporters.
Then stick with plan B and vote McCain/Palin. Since pollsters like to muck up the numbers let's skunk up ALL the polls BIGTIME. And God willing if BO tanks in Nov. the sweeter the fall since his poll numbers were artificially elevated. So PUMA the polls and scratch em all up silly!

I don't recommend this idea because many people tend to skip voting if the election is predicted to be a blow out. When the race is close everyone makes an effort. For example, in Illinois many McCain voters may not go to the polls expecting Obama to win big with their time and effort making little difference.

[Aria]

Here's an idea...anyone here who gets polled responds as Obama supporters.
Then stick with plan B and vote McCain/Palin. Since pollsters like to muck up the numbers let's skunk up ALL the polls BIGTIME. And God willing if BO tanks in Nov. the sweeter the fall since his poll numbers were artificially elevated. So PUMA the polls and scratch em all up silly!

Sounds like justice, but I don't agree. Too many people vote for who they perceive the winner is going to be - and we've seen too much of that already. I think we need to speak up for McCain-Palin every chance we get and hope to win a few people over in the process! BO, the DNC and the media all deserve to lose big, but I'll take a McCain-Palin win of any size! - and we have to work hard to make sure that happens.

[Perry Logan]

Another factor in Obama's humiliating defeat will be the OTF--The Obama Thug Factor (not to be mistaken for the Bradley Effect).

The OTF has nothing to do with race, but everything to do with fear. Millions of people are publicly saying they'll vote for Obama, simply because they've been threatened.

Obama's people think intimidation and threats are the way to go, so millions of Americans are claiming to support Obama--to avoid being called racists, being called foul names, having their tires slashed, having rocks thrown through their windows, or even to avoid being assaulted or killed.

Time will tell if I'm right. But I think the OTF will be a major factor in the massive trainwreck known as Obama.

[Mrs L]

My worry and problem is that they will cheat so badly that they will win.

As a Hillary Clinton supporter from Day One, I watched how he did it to her.

The law does not seem to be helping us, this man should have been indicted or called to testify in the Rezko case.

He is supported by a gang of crooks, Liberal Movie Stars, MSM, and ignorant voters and he scares me to death.


Logic and being on the side of honor does not apply with this person.

It is like being in the Twilight Zone.

798

[Dendy]

My worry and problem is that they will cheat so badly that they will win.

As a Hillary Clinton supporter from Day One, I watched how he did it to her.

The law does not seem to be helping us, this man should have been indicted or called to testify in the Rezko case.

He is supported by a gang of crooks, Liberal Movie Stars, MSM, and ignorant voters and he scares me to death.


Logic and being on the side of honor does not apply with this person.

It is like being in the Twilight Zone.

I agree 100%.
I just don’t want to underestimate the length these guys will go to in order to win.

[Carolyn]

If the best Obama can do, with Wall Street collapsing and all, is to slow McCain's momentum and draw even, i.e. if Obama's numbers don't continue to climb over the next few days, he's toast. There is nothing, I mean NOTHING, he can slam McCain with that would be more potent than a failing economy. That's his last, best card.

I have suspected all along that when your average American voter is faced with financial ruin, and is choosing between change and experience, they'll go with experience every time. Obama supporters who want to "throw the bums out" are not the people suffering most from this economic down turn. They can afford to take a big risk. People with the most on the line cannot.

[freethinker]

Southern States The ONLY reason obama won against Hillary (although Hillary got more votes and obama cheated) is because of SOUTHERN states.. like north Carolina for example or Georgia.. When he went against Hillary, 50 percent of the dem voters in those states were AFRICAN AMERICAN. 90 percent of which voted for obama.. When 90 percent of 50 voters go one way Hillary had NO CHANCE in those states (talk about voting based on race). However Those southern states that obama won? he will LOSE in the general election. MEANING for him to win, he cant compete in the strong states that went for him against Hillary because those he will lose to mccain, BUT IN HES WEAKEST states that he lost to Hillary, Ohio, Michigan, PA, Florida.

Obama did win in some Southern traditional red states with significant AA pops in disproportionately allocated delegate weighted urban areas. However, his "win" was due to gaming of the system. Most effectively in caucus states, many of which were in the midwest and west. However, he did rig districts in Primary contests by loading ballots with people not legally registered --North Carolina being a glaring example. He also gamed IN with his thugs from Chicago. But you are correct about HRC's strength with the electoral map! His "wins" in deep red states are useless, despite Dean's 50 state strategy.

[Carolyn]

You are correct about everything, especially about the media trying to get Obama elected. Today for example, "trooper gate" continues to be on the front page of CNN. I am amazed that something so irrelevant would be given so much attention.

This will be mostly uphill for McCain because most of the media is stacked firmly in favor of Obama.

But I think you are right and that Americans will see through MSM lies and deception.

Good signs this week:
Wisconsin and Minnesota became toss ups. If McCain can take a decent lead in either one of the two, I think this will be over soon.

I fully expect McCain to win Ohio. The latest poll in Iowa shows a tie. Pennsylvania is looking very competitive. These are all good signs.

Now if McCain can wrap up Virginia, Indiana, and Nevada we will be on a clear path to victory.

CNN doesn't just mention "troopergate" EVERY single night; they always mention it in the same breath with "allegations of abuse of power by Gov. Sarah Palin," just in case you haven't been tuning in. They're so full of it. I've never seen so many eyes light up over economic disaster.

[HILLARYCLINTONRULES]

omg I am scared with the new polls :(

[Bloomer]

You are correct about everything, especially about the media trying to get Obama elected. Today for example, "trooper gate" continues to be on the front page of CNN. I am amazed that something so irrelevant would be given so much attention.

This will be mostly uphill for McCain because most of the media is stacked firmly in favor of Obama.

But I think you are right and that Americans will see through MSM lies and deception.

Good signs this week:
Wisconsin and Minnesota became toss ups. If McCain can take a decent lead in either one of the two, I think this will be over soon.

I fully expect McCain to win Ohio. The latest poll in Iowa shows a tie. Pennsylvania is looking very competitive. These are all good signs.

Now if McCain can wrap up Virginia, Indiana, and Nevada we will be on a clear path to victory.

Yes! I do believe good ole IOWA is finally coming to their senses and waking up. Buyers remorse has begun to hit the Tall Corn State, thank goodness!

I use to absolutely hate to even look at the polls here but the past few days there has been a shift and McCain's numbers are coming up. It's not so bad looking at the numbers this way. :cool:

Hopefully this shift will continue. I know there are alot of Senior citizens here who are changing their minds by the minute. And another thing I've noticed in my daily traveling around my County are the McCain and McCain/Palin signs that seem to be popping up in peoples yards these days. More and more they are becoming visable and that too is a great sign that the tide is turning. I have to admit everytime I see a new one pop up I have to smile just a bit. :)

I have to give great credit to the Republicans.........the Palin stradegy was BRILLIANT, you gotta give em credit for that one. ;)

I too think that McCain will win bigger than expected.

Bill O'Reily had a good point last night too when he said that there will be MANY who when it gets right down to it will step into those booths and vote McCain because with things the way they are right now, Iraq, Russia, the economy, they just won't be able to trust the "New Guy" thus a vote for McCain. I think he has a good point there too.

[BooskerD]

Here's an idea...anyone here who gets polled responds as Obama supporters.
Then stick with plan B and vote McCain/Palin. Since pollsters like to muck up the numbers let's skunk up ALL the polls BIGTIME. And God willing if BO tanks in Nov. the sweeter the fall since his poll numbers were artificially elevated. So PUMA the polls and scratch em all up silly!

I think this is already happening! A lot of people are claiming to be Obama supporters when quizzed because they don't want to be accused of racism. I think the polls are quite skewed.

[HILLARYCLINTONRULES]

guys why is Colorado swinging for Obama :(

[fsantarpia]

Obama arguably violates the Logan Act, and Troopergate gets the headlines.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but PUMAs are continuing to get a lesson in what it means to be Republican - a lesson they started to learn during the primaries. It sucks, doesn't it? The MSM is lethal. To ask them to be completely fair is ridiculous, but if they were even 50% fair McCain would be ahead by ten points.

It is frustrating, maddening and makes your head explode. The sad thing is that even though I believe in my heart of hearts that McCain will win, we are going our separate ways for '12. The only difference is that I, as a Repub, will still be on the receiving end of this bias, and it will work in your favor.

I hope when the time comes you will feel sympathy for me, the way I did for you during the prinaries.

[Bloomer]

CNN doesn't just mention "troopergate" EVERY single night; they always mention it in the same breath with "allegations of abuse of power by Gov. Sarah Palin," just in case you haven't been tuning in. They're so full of it. I've never seen so many eyes light up over economic disaster.

I still REFUSE to watch CNN, MSNBC, even NBC news now too......I'm so P'od at Matt and Meridith. And that use to be my favorite news in the morning too and anymore the bias is showing more and more.

Most polls you can't even take seriously they are all so rigged.

If I do have to watch it is FOX and even then you have to be careful what you watch.

It's just damn sad that you can't trust your news sources to report fairly and without bias. I guess we all just expect to much.

[freethinker]

Yes! I do believe good ole IOWA is finally coming to their senses and waking up. Buyers remorse has begun to hit the Tall Corn State, thank goodness!

I use to absolutely hate to even look at the polls here but the past few days there has been a shift and McCain's numbers are coming up. It's not so bad looking at the numbers this way. :cool:

Hopefully this shift will continue. I know there are alot of Senior citizens here who are changing their minds by the minute. And another thing I've noticed in my daily traveling around my County are the McCain and McCain/Palin signs that seem to be popping up in peoples yards these days. More and more they are becoming visable and that too is a great sign that the tide is turning. I have to admit everytime I see a new one pop up I have to smile just a bit. :)

I have to give great credit to the Republicans.........the Palin stradegy was BRILLIANT, you gotta give em credit for that one. ;)

I too think that McCain will win bigger than expected.

Bill O'Reily had a good point last night too when he said that there will be MANY who when it gets right down to it will step into those booths and vote McCain because with things the way they are right now, Iraq, Russia, the economy, they just won't be able to trust the "New Guy" thus a vote for McCain. I think he has a good point there too.

Bloomer, do you really think Iowa will break for Mac? I am very concerned about the effect of the Dems latest maneuver with the ethanol pander in their energy bill.

What say you? What is happening on the ground out there?

[G4Hillary]

guys why is Colorado swinging for Obama :(

I wouldn't put too much merit in those polls yet. Colorado will be close. I think McCain will pull it off at the end. Watch the undecided number. Those will mostly break for McCain. Chuck Todd on Obama Network (MSNBC) said that McCain would pick up 70% of late deciders.

[G4Hillary]

Bloomer, do you really think Iowa will break for Mac? I am very concerned about the effect of the Dems latest maneuver with the ethanol pander in their energy bill.

What say you? What is happening on the ground out there?

Recall the Huckabee's primary victory in Iowa. Iowa is a big evangelical state and Sarah Palin has energized them. I think it will be competitive.

[shadow]

Another factor in Obama's humiliating defeat will be the OTF--The Obama Thug Factor (not to be mistaken for the Bradley Effect).

The OTF has nothing to do with race, but everything to do with fear. Millions of people are publicly saying they'll vote for Obama, simply because they've been threatened.

Obama's people think intimidation and threats are the way to go, so millions of Americans are claiming to support Obama--to avoid being called racists, being called foul names, having their tires slashed, having rocks thrown through their windows, or even to avoid being assaulted or killed.

Time will tell if I'm right. But I think the OTF will be a major factor in the massive trainwreck known as Obama.

Yes. I have been doing that for months. I got tired of the threats. I had these creeps claiming they were watching my house. Phone call harrassment to the point I had to change my number. :mad:

To the people I see irl, I say I support bo. It is just safer. But in Nov. I vote McCain/Palin. I doubt that I am the only one.

In my town the fear of ob people is so real you can almost cut it with a knife. This entire "election" is a disgrace that is destroying this country, and I lay that blame right on obama and the DNC.

[reddirtgirl]

Here's an idea...anyone here who gets polled responds as Obama supporters.
Then stick with plan B and vote McCain/Palin. Since pollsters like to muck up the numbers let's skunk up ALL the polls BIGTIME. And God willing if BO tanks in Nov. the sweeter the fall since his poll numbers were artificially elevated. So PUMA the polls and scratch em all up silly!

Although i'm not afraid to tell people I'm voting McCain/Palin, this could be a good idea. If Obama thinks he's got it made, with the polls showing him ahead, he probably would get complacent with his arrogance and stop attacking and smearing McCain/Palin so hard. He would let down his guard.

And suddenly, when it's too late, he's lost the election!

[freethinker]

Obama arguably violates the Logan Act, and Troopergate gets the headlines.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but PUMAs are continuing to get a lesson in what it means to be Republican - a lesson they started to learn during the primaries. It sucks, doesn't it? The MSM is lethal. To ask them to be completely fair is ridiculous, but if they were even 50% fair McCain would be ahead by ten points.

It is frustrating, maddening and makes your head explode. The sad thing is that even though I believe in my heart of hearts that McCain will win, we are going our separate ways for '12. The only difference is that I, as a Repub, will still be on the receiving end of this bias, and it will work in your favor.

I hope when the time comes you will feel sympathy for me, the way I did for you during the prinaries.

We certainly are getting that lesson. Although for PUMAs, unlike Republicans, there has been NO safe harbor. None. Nada. Zilch. No FOX, no NBC, no Rush, no CNN, no NYT, no Post, no Glenn Beck, no Air America, no Free Republic, no Huff Post, no TownHall, no Newsweek, no WSJ, no N.O.W., NOTHING!! Just us. Hillary got hammered from every major newssource.

I must say, the Clintons in particular have been the object of ludicrous attacks from both the right and the left. The right wing started it and the left just recycled old Republican talking points. The extremes have taken over the airways to create drama and sell stories. So, because the Clintons are centrists, they are fair game. Ironic, because most of America falls close to the middle. I also think it's because they make some insecure media people feel inadequate. They are certainly a cottage industry for faux scandal spinners. Seriously, we could have spent our time much more productively in the 90's rather than wasting money ($70 million?) impeaching for a sexual indiscretion. Especially with hypocritical philandering Newt leading the charge. And I happen to like a lot of what he has to say. But that was ridiculous.

After this Primary, the left MSM has shown that no one is safe, unless it is their favored Dem and male. What they did to Hillary and the Clintons in general and half of the rank and file Democrats put that theory to rest. So as far as 2012 goes, I trust no one. That's what PUMAs, especially women, have learned.

[freethinker]

Recall the Huckabee's primary victory in Iowa. Iowa is a big evangelical state and Sarah Palin has energized them. I think it will be competitive.

From your lips to God's ears.

:)

[Avalon]

There is definitely part of me that thinks McCain will win big, depending on how many people have come out of their BHO induced coma. It is going to be a tough fight until then, we can't take BHOs intimidation factor for granted or the power of his koolaid.:cool:

[joeysky18]

Two forces are working behind Obama.

1. Media
2. Election fraud

McCain is facing a tough fight.

[Aria]

Recall the Huckabee's primary victory in Iowa. Iowa is a big evangelical state and Sarah Palin has energized them. I think it will be competitive.

....And next-door neighbor Minnesota may regain its senses, too! - and Wisconsin! There's hope! Especially since the perception of who BO really is has "changed" since the primaries. Is this the change they were counting on? I think not. :D

[Bacio83]

i really wish it was true.I dont think any of u should think so positive because u will only hurt urself in the end.

Buzzkill vanity.... lol jk jk.

I like sometimes sitting on the optimist bench. But I know where you're coming from.... always expect the worst hope for the best. ;) (Motto of an HRC supporter eh?)

[Aria]

Two forces are working behind Obama.

1. Media
2. Election fraud

McCain is facing a tough fight.

You're right. I wonder how effective the Honest Elections team that McCain put together can be. Does anyone know what exactly they are doing - in advance, and during the election itself? And how we can help?

[freespirit]

Not so sure I agree with that, ezrider. You could have those out there who see these polls and think, "well, if most of the country trusts Obama, why shouldn't I?" Personally, I would never vote based on something like that, but there are some very easily influenced people out there. If I get a chance to answer a poll call (doubtful since I use a cell phone) ... I'll definitely be speaking out for McCain/Palin.

I tend to agree. There's an advertising principle that supports your concern. Many people trust the judgement of their peers, often more than they trust themselves - especially when large groups of people believe a certain concept or purchase a certain product.

[ModerateRepublican]

Recall the Huckabee's primary victory in Iowa. Iowa is a big evangelical state and Sarah Palin has energized them. I think it will be competitive.

I don't think so.

IA is a one issue state.
McCain = anti ethanol
Obama = hopelessly panders to expand ethanol subsidies.

Ethanol subsidies have dumped tens of billions into IA corn farmers and ethanol plants at the expense of taxpayers in the form of direct federal subsidies and by higher prices at pump. All have helped to substantially boost IA economy.

IA is not going red this year. The only way IA switches is if McCain doesn't need it; If McCain is +3% on pop vote then most of the map will be red. IA may turn but at that point it wouldn't matter cause likely the EV will be 300-340 range.

Ethanol is bad news and McCain knows it.
Ethanol costs about $7.00 per gallon equivalent to make so it is subsidized all the way from land to seed to corn to factories to final product
Even w/ subsidies it cost more per gallon at retail (higher price at pump).
It gives less energy per gallon (so although it cost more you get less miles from it).
To call it green would be a joke if it wasn't so damaging to the economy.

It takes 1 unit of energy to produce 1.6 units of ethanol. To put it into perspective we are starting to enforce 10% ethanol in most area. Great news we save 10% gas right? Well actually it takes 7% more fuel to produce to make that 10% ethanol. So we save a net of 3% fuel usage. That net 3% is likely the single most expensive con on the American people.

Ethanol is consuming tax dollars, driving up prices at pump, and even helping to drive up food prices.

Food is very low cost /lb compared to say electronics so fuel cost is a huge % of final retail price. Ethanol has produced a net INCREASE in fuel prices so it contributes to rise in food cost.
Second issue is that EVERYONE is trying to get into the corn free ride express. Peanut farmers in VA are growing corn. Corn grows horribly here but due to fact that price of corn has TRIPLED due to ethanol it is more profitable to grow low yield corn than it is to grow high yield peanuts. Beef ranchers are cutting back on their herds. Why? Because their cows are eating more $$$ in corn then the beef is selling for. It would be more profitable to sell corn to ethanol plants. Grazing land is being plowed under to plant corn so even ranchers that using grazing land are finding it hard to maintain herds. Supply & Demand less peanut, other crops, cattle, etc on market & same demand = higher prices.

Anyways sorry for long rant BUT: McCain stood up to Ethanol and that will cost him IA. Obama panders to Ethanol lobby by promoting a fairytail than ethanol will solve our energy needs and IA rewards him w/ votes. Eventually in 4-5 years people will catch on that ethanol from corn is a joke. Ethanol from sugarcane is about 3x more efficent but there are massive tarrifs on sugarcane ethanol to protect the corn lobby. Ethanol from switchgrass or algae is even more efficent. So ethanol can work but from corn it is just a joke.

[freethinker]

I don't think so.

IA is a one issue state.
McCain = anti ethanol
Obama = hopelessly panders to expand ethanol subsidies.

Ethanol subsidies have dumped tens of billions into IA corn farmers and ethanol plants. All paid for by taxpayers boosting profits to insane %.

IA is not going red this year. Only way IA switches is if McCain doesn't need it. If McCain is +3% on pop vote most states will turn red and EV will be 300+ then IA will turn (maybe).

Ethanol is bad news and McCain knows it.
Ethanol costs about $7.00 per gallon equivelent to make so it is subsidized all the way from land to seed to corn to factories to final product
Even w/ subsidies it cost more per gallon to make then gasoline (higher price at pump).
It gives less energy per gallon (you get less MPG out of it),
To call it green would be a joke if it wasn't such a drain on the economy.

It takes 1 unit of energy to produce 1.6 units of ethanol energy. To put it into perspective we are moving the country gasoline supply to 10% ethanol. Great news we save 10% gas right. Well actually it takes 7% to make that 10%. So we save a net of 3% fuel usage.

What is major factor driving food prices
Well one is fuel surcharges. Food is very low cost /lb compared to say electronics so fuel is a huge % of final retail price. Ethanol has produced a net INCREASE in fuel prices.
Second issue is that EVERYONE is trying to get into the corn free ride express. Peanut farmers in VA are growing corn. Corn grows horribly here but due to fact that price of corn has TRIPLED due to ethanol it is more profitable to grow low yield corn than it is to grow high yield peanuts.

Beef ranchers are cutting back on their herds. Why? Because their cows are eating more $$$ in corn then the beef is selling for. It would be more profitable to sell corn to ethanol plants.

Anyways sorry for long rant BUT: McCain stood up to Ethanol and that will cost him IA. Obama panders to Ethanol lobby by promoting a fairytail than ethanol will solve our energy needs and IA rewards him w/ votes.

This is my fear, as well.

[movingtous]

I don't think you're crazy. Somehow, I feel it in my bones. McCain will paint the town red. My pro-Obama husband is starting to feel it, too. Could be female persuasion, but who knows.

[Bardot]

Obama will do anything to win!

That gives him a huge edge against McCain!:eek:

[happyfeetprod]

someone mentioned colorado.. in a few of the polls that iv seen.. rassmussen zogby etc.. mccain is leading in colorado.. so i think were doing pretty good there.. and agian consider my pionts about the poll and how were getting under polled..

[Tea toaD]

The polls are going in favor of Obama by 5pts. This is going to be too close to call. If they keep shifting to obama after the debates, I think he will win. The economy issues are the biggest issues and comparing JM to Bush seems to be working. I know he's not but that's what people are seeing right now. Obama is using this economy against JM. Just being real here.:confused:

[Suzan]

We certainly are getting that lesson. Although for PUMAs, unlike Republicans, there has been NO safe harbor. None. Nada. Zilch. No FOX, no NBC, no Rush, no CNN, no NYT, no Post, no Glenn Beck, no Air America, no Free Republic, no Huff Post, no TownHall, no Newsweek, no WSJ, no N.O.W., NOTHING!! Just us. Hillary got hammered from every major newssource.

I must say, the Clintons in particular have been the object of ludicrous attacks from both the right and the left. The right wing started it and the left just recycled old Republican talking points. The extremes have taken over the airways to create drama and sell stories. So, because the Clintons are centrists, they are fair game. Ironic, because most of America falls close to the middle. I also think it's because they make some insecure media people feel inadequate. They are certainly a cottage industry for faux scandal spinners. Seriously, we could have spent our time much more productively in the 90's rather than wasting money ($70 million?) impeaching for a sexual indiscretion. Especially with hypocritical philandering Newt leading the charge. And I happen to like a lot of what he has to say. But that was ridiculous.

After this Primary, the left MSM has shown that no one is safe, unless it is their favored Dem and male. What they did to Hillary and the Clintons in general and half of the rank and file Democrats put that theory to rest. So as far as 2012 goes, I trust no one. That's what PUMAs, especially women, have learned.
Excellent analysis, Freethinker. Right on!

[LetsHelpAmerica]

Not so sure I agree with that, ezrider. You could have those out there who see these polls and think, "well, if most of the country trusts Obama, why shouldn't I?" Personally, I would never vote based on something like that, but there are some very easily influenced people out there. If I get a chance to answer a poll call (doubtful since I use a cell phone) ... I'll definitely be speaking out for McCain/Palin.

EXACTLY!!! It is important for people to see that Obama is NOT the favorite...need to keep things even ( at worst ) and up for McCain at best.

[Hillarysmygirl08]

I do not pay any attention to the polls until after the second week of October when the Republicans launch their attack. I know the Republicans and the 527s are going to attack Obama and this year I am looking forward to it. Remember the PUMAs there are to many of them for Obama to win. Also remember this that he will win if we get lazy. We have to work hard.

[12counts]

someone mentioned colorado.. in a few of the polls that iv seen.. rassmussen zogby etc.. mccain is leading in colorado.. so i think were doing pretty good there.. and agian consider my pionts about the poll and how were getting under polled..

It looks like Obama is going to pick off Iowa and New Mexico. That means McCain HAS to win Colorado. If Obama wins Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado, he will win. It is imperative that McCain wins Florida, Virginia, Ohio and Colorado at the very least. I'm getting less worried about Florida and Virginia and more worried about Ohio and Colorado.

If I were McCain, I would be throwing everything I had at Ohio and Colorado, keeping an eye out on Florida and Virginia, and also making a push in Michigan as a wild card state. My gut tells me he has a good chance of picking off Michigan should he really try there. I would have Romney there from now until election day.

I give up on Pennsylvania; if Hillary couldn't win it by 20 pts with Obama's dismal debate performance there and bitter/clingy comments, then I don't think McCain can win it at all.

[Folamix]

Obama's toast.

He should be way ahead, but he can't close the deal.

He's got no substance that he can actually share with the American people.

The facade is wearing thin.

He couldn't close the deal with Hillary but somehow he still won the nomination. Different ballgame with McCain, its close but a win by one is all he needs

[ModerateRepublican]

I give up on Pennsylvania; if Hillary couldn't win it by 20 pts with Obama's dismal debate performance there and bitter/clingy comments, then I don't think McCain can win it at all.

I hope your wrong about PA. We will know more after the debate.
If Mac can't win PA then he likely is looking at a completely defensive game.
We all know defense is harder than offense.

Obama will attack in FL, VA, OH & CO. McCain needs 4 of 4. Obama only needs one.

It is still doable but it will be very hard to pull off. I would rather see Mac flip PA, MI, WI or MN this would require Obama to win Kerry + IA + NM + 2 more states which will be very hard to do.

Interesting thing is that NH is likely useless this year for Mac. If McCain takes NH most combination of close breaks end up 269-269 which goes to the Democratic controlled congress. Bad news.

[PalinPower]

I have decided that if Obama wins the election, I will move out of the country, and have already made "exit plans" so that I will have left before he's sworn into office in January.

That may sound drastic, but I am not going to live in a country run by 'black militant marxism'. I believe an Obama administration would pose a great threat to my personal safety and if I didn't leave soon enough, may make it impossible to leave in the future. The USA would afterall, literally become a communist country.

If the people of this country would be so stupid as to put someone like that in power, then this will no longer by my America. It will literally be the death of the great country of our founding fathers.

[happyfeetprod]

palinpower

I strongly urge you not to do that, unless u moving has other issues that are unrelated to this. like family issues etc..

THIS COUNTRY is worth fighting for, this country has been around for hundreds of years, and 4 years of a idiot being president isnt going to do anything to change that.

IF HE WINS work hard the next 4 years to elect someone better then him. but dont leave this country.

[Isis46]

I have decided that if Obama wins the election, I will move out of the country, and have already made "exit plans" so that I will have left before he's sworn into office in January.

That may sound drastic, but I am not going to live in a country run by 'black militant marxism'. I believe an Obama administration would pose a great threat to my personal safety and if I didn't leave soon enough, may make it impossible to leave in the future. The USA would afterall, literally become a communist country.

If the people of this country would be so stupid as to put someone like that in power, then this will no longer by my America. It will literally be the death of the great country of our founding fathers.

Don't move out of the country -- move to Alaska! :D

You get no state income tax;in fact, the state actually sends you money back!

On a more serious note, your energies could be spent in voting in state/federal representatives that would push back against Obama policies, as well as actively working against his re-election in 2012. Besides, there are support groups (such as this wonderful forum), that can help provide comfort over the course of four years.

However, I must strongly note that this is NO time for despair, but work. The election hinges on these three things, I think:

* McCain's abilities to shift the FannieMay/FreddieMac crisis onto the Obama-supporting Democrats and Obama's advisers.

* The debates, especially the town-hall style one.

* The RNC ad-wave that will be airing toward the end of October.

If your are of a religious nature, now would be a good time for much prayer. But, for those of us who value liberty and the free market, this is the time for much work.

[nette60]

Republicans always do better on election day than in the polls.

We can't take this for granted anymore. As Hillary found put. Obama will do anything and I mean anything to win. This will be an all out Cheaters free for all.

[samkm]

Recall what it was like in April and May.

McCain supporters -- Republicans and supporters like a lot of the individuals among us -- have a hard fight on our hands. It is uphill, but doable.

[Bloomer]

Bloomer, do you really think Iowa will break for Mac? I am very concerned about the effect of the Dems latest maneuver with the ethanol pander in their energy bill.

What say you? What is happening on the ground out there?

I think Iowa will come out in the end closer than you think. Can't say it will go all red but I do believe that things are shifting here.

I just received an email from an old highschool friend who just resigned as his Democratic County Secretary. Going over to McCain like many of us. Several others he knows are also voting McCain he says. No one trust Obama the longer this goes on and the more people find out about him.

On the ethanol front........word here is that several of the plants have suspended their construction. We farm and sell tons of corn to the plants around here but it's now being questioned as to it's effect on our enviornmnet and some are saying it is just as bad or worse that the oil/gas.
It takes so much corn to produce the stuff in the first place that it is driving up the corn price and then because everyone went to corn because it would sell they all laid off the soybeans and now bean meal prices are going up and through the roof so the cost of feeding the hogs is skyrocketing. Which then makes the pork prices go up ect..... It's all a vicious circle you know.........like dominos really.....one thing effects the other and we all fall down.

The ethanol might have sounded like a good idea but it's still to be determined as to whether or not it really was.
One thing is for sure..........the farmers once again are getting hit.......they're getting good money for the corn but paying outrageous prices to feed their livestock. You just never really get ahead.