Is anyone concerned with the polls?

[AnnaB]

Politico has Obama at 50% and McCain at 44%. First of all do you believe these polls? Secondly are you concerned? Also do you think McCain needs to step it up?

[geneo]

nope,

[xfiles]

Yes to all 3.

The polls could be skewed but it is the perception that people have to go with a "perceived winner" that is never factored in.

I know when I was a young first time voter, I tended to think that the guy in the lead must be better than the guy not in the lead. Back then there was no internet and really no way to personally research a candidate.

And for those who don't do research and just rely on the polls, this is a problem/factor.

Politico has Obama at 50% and McCain at 44%. First of all do you believe these polls? Secondly are you concerned? Also do you think McCain needs to step it up?

[Centipede]

Yes, I'm concerned but I'm hoping the debates will help McCain.

[LetsHelpAmerica]

Yes, I am concerned but I know we can do this!! We must work harder to compensate for the biased, lying media and the corruption within the Obama camapign.
But, I know we can do it!!! I'm going to be putting up McCain lawn signs next week!
And, will be putting flyers up with website addresses to
JUST SAY NO DEAL & PUMA PAC .

[Kbentleyis]

Yes, Politico has him up, but demographic support has him down. Go figure? Remember, BHO took a big hit this last week. 4 prominent Democrats are crossing the isle for McCain/Palin. His ego can't take it, so most likely Axelrod worked his magic.

But, we have to work harder. Get letters to editors. Make calls if you can.

[SusanfromPA]

The polls are reflecting the latest economic news from participants who are having a knee jerk reaction.

I noticed the MSM is, so far today, ignoring the bombing of a Marriott hotel in Pakistan. Something like 44 dead, and probably more to come. But focusing on the bombing would drive home the need for a strong Military man (McCain) so the media will likely do it's best to ignore the story.

[NBM]

It's a little concerning, but I've thought all along this election would come down to the debates. People don't pay constant attention to the polls. They WILL watch the debates.
;) :)

[HILLARYCLINTONRULES]

:) The Debates will change the tune of the race

[HILLARYCLINTONRULES]

:rolleyes: I am not that worried

[ssmith]

nope not concerned.. as long as its with 5 or 6 points....

I would guess biden versus Palin debate will decide it for everyone...

especially when they see Palin is better than biden or BO.. and she is only running for the VP

[foxyladi]

Yes, I am concerned but I know we can do this!! We must work harder to compensate for the biased, lying media and the corruption within the Obama camapign.
But, I know we can do it!!! I'm going to be putting up McCain lawn signs next week!
And, will be putting flyers up with website addresses to
JUST SAY NO DEAL & PUMA PAC .

quit worrying everthing will be oky doky !!!

[Doris T.]

Politico has been in favor of Obama since around March. Every time I would go to their site it was articles for Obama so they are not impartial. So, they may from here on give Obama a slight advantage.

I think all the polls have been biased for Obama from way back. There are a certain percentage of people who will actually vote for the person presumed to be winning, so in that sense, I hate the polls because it does swing some voters.

The MSM has fawned over him, maybe they don't want to be perceived as racist but they have gone way beyond poofing up his tail feathers.

I used to like to read the polls in other elections, but in this one, overall I don't trust them.

In August, Obama got $66 Million. With the democratic convention, he should have doubled or tripled that amount. McCain received $200 Million during the few days of the republican convention.

So Obama isn't doing so well. I guess Hollywood will try to rescue him.

[mesofreee]

I'm not worried about the polls. I think they will cross back and forth several times before election day. I like it when we are down because it makes us fight harder.

I do agree that McCain isn't hitting hard enough. But then again it isn't quite time to reach full attack mode. It has been steadily ramping up since the convention which is good and I expect it to continue.

[encarn]

Rasmussen Daily Tracking, 20 September 2008:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama with 48% of the vote and John McCain with 47%. While Obama’s lead is statistically insignificant, it is the first time he has held even a single-point advantage in a week-and-a-half. One week ago today, McCain was up by three points (see trends). Results are released every day at 9:30 a.m. Eastern and a FREE daily e-mail update is available.

Obama is up by four points in Maine and McCain is up by two in Indiana.Additional state polls will be released throughout the weekend and first thing Monday morning. Each Saturday morning, Rasmussen Reports takes a look at the key polls of the past week to see What They Told Us.

Obama’s gains over the past week came as the focus shifted from the momentum generated at the Republican National Convention to the economic roller coaster ride that played out on Wall Street. Few agreed with McCain’s initial statement about the economy being fundamentally sound and neither candidate has yet convinced voters that he will bring the needed changes to the financial markets.

I also heard Andrew Sullivan on Bill Maher last night - yes, I'm a Republican that watches Bill Maher; I apparently am a Masochist - that he too has spoken with prominent Democrats who say that if Obama is not ahead by 5-7% in the polls, he will lose. He did not use the term, but he was speaking of the Bradley Effect and explained his belief using the effects definition.

26 September - 1st Debate!

[Artists4Hillary]

If Obama maintained a 15 pt lead through Oct., I'd be very worried. But I don't think that's likely. So, don't worry about a 5 pt right now. The debates are going to be the turning point.

[ConservativeChick]

I can't believe how many people don't research a candidate.. I mean, it's for PRESIDENT, don't you think you should do some research?

For instance, my boss is for Obama and started repeating the "90%" mantra that everyone uses, I very nicely corrected her that the 90% is untrue, besides that I reminded her that Obama voted for Bush's economic plan when McCain didn't. Not to mention how many times the senate votes unanimously. She didn't know what to say about that.

Ditto with the "but we need Change.." stuff people say.. Ok, how is he going to change washington? No one can answer. He has never gone up against his own party, he didn't even pick yes or no for 130 issues while in the Senate. Yes, he would be a CHANGE from Bush, but so would McCain! Obama not the type of change that would for America.

It's pathetically EASY to argue a case against Obama... most people just don't have any good arguments or come backs.

[hillwillwin08]

I just came back from a week's vacation in the San Francisco Bay
area (Oakland and Berkeley). All I saw were Obama bumper stickers
and lawn signs. Absolutely nothing for McCain/Palin. I was staying
in Rockridge, a very prosperous area inhabited by professionals.
I cannot believe how presumably intelligent people living there do
not know as much as we do about Obama. They have bought the
notion completely that we need change and that Obama's plans
are no different from Hillary's. They believe that a vote for McCain
means a continuation of Bush policies.

I had to be careful not to argue the PUMA position too forcefully
or I'd lose friends.

Last Tuesday, however, I took the BART to the Embarcadero and
there was a McCain/Palin registration table at the entrance to the
Ferry Building. They didn't seem to be attracting too many people.
I went over and said I was from out of state, already registered
and that I was a Hillary supporter who will vote for McCain/Palin.
They smiled and said those were the people who seem to be stopping
by the most.

[ConservativeChick]

Oh forgot to mention, I also know someone who "doesn't follow politics, I just vote for whoever my daughter tells me to." I was like WTF? Seriously? :eek::rolleyes:

[kathleen]

Not full blown worry. More like a little concerned. But we need to keep in mind that media and political biases are skewing the results. And we also need to keep in mind that this is an inflammatory election so people aren't comfortable being honest when polled as they fear retaliation from BO thugs or fear being labeled a racist. They will give the expected answer that makes them feel they answered correctly, as if it is a litmus test for open-mindedness that they MUST pass.

Then they go to the booth, push the button or pull the lever for who they are most comfortable with. McCain/Palin.

When asked who they voted for in the exit polls...they say BO. :rolleyes:

[reddirtgirl]

Well, I am VERY concerned, and won't take a deep breath until BO is defeated in Nov. It's not the polls so much that worry me, it's the expected cheating and thuggery that will go on on election day.

[Lillie]

Nope. Not concerned.

The dip was to be expected in all the negative press that was created to try and marginalize Palin. I expect to see it pick back up again since the Hannity interview has aired.

She was a boost at first, then people were leery because of all of the negative press. Once they actually see her (Via the MSM at rallys and in one on one interviews) people will realize that all of the "she is cluelss" talking points are nonsense. Even the Gibson hatchet job works in her favor. It was too obviously intended to be a hit piece and she still came through it well.

Mac is already trusted. All she has to do is seem capable, which she is, and the numbers will bounce back the other way.

The Dems shot themselves in the foot with all the unfair accusations about her and will be paying a price for it once more people see her speak. IMO They are screaming loudly because they know they are in trouble.

[country1st]

Nope, not concerned at this point in time.

ALWAYS look at the internals of the polls. ALWAYS consider the source.

Rasmussen is known to be the most accurate polling company. Yes, it's gone up steadily for Obama this week but as of today he's only 1 point ahead as per Rassmussen.

This has been a crazy week with people reacting to bad financial market news even though most people don't understand it. Things will recalibrate towards the end of next week if McCain plays his card right.

By looking at the poll internals, I mean this: Don't pay much heed to "registered voter" polls. It's the "likely voter" polls that are valid.

Look at internals like the percentage democrats represented in polls to the percentage republicans. In the recent Gallup poll that had Obama up 5, more democrats were represented. McCain went up in all demographic groups, and Obama didn't. The only thing that can explain the decline for McCain, therefore, is that Gallup used a different polling configuration.

DON'T GET DOWN YET. McCain needs to step up his credibility in the economic realm to help stabilize the polling. He needs to send Romney out big time or make some appearances with him--he's one of the foremost economic experts in the country-- a doer, not a talker and a proven leader in this arena. Better yet, announce Romney will be the head of Treasury in a McCain administration. McCain needs to do something REALLY bold right now to shift the big "mo." If he doesn't, then I will start to become concerned.

[hillwillwin08]

Not full blown worry. More like a little concerned. But we need to keep in mind that media and political biases are skewing the results. And we also need to keep in mind that this is an inflammatory election so people aren't comfortable being honest when polled as they fear retaliation from BO thugs or fear being labeled a racist. They will give the expected answer that makes them feel they answered correctly, as if it is a litmus test for open-mindedness that they MUST pass.

Then they go to the booth, push the button or pull the lever for who they are most comfortable with. McCain/Palin.

When asked who they voted for in the exit polls...they say BO. :rolleyes:

I think you may be right. Gallup (who has Obama up by 6) uses live
people to call households and the people may just say Obama because
it's the "popular" answer.

Rasmussen on the other hand (who has Obama up by 1) is a robo poll where you just punch numbers on your telephone and don't speak to a live
operator.

[encarn]

Poll: RCP Average
Date Sample: 09/09 - 09/19
Obama (D): 47.4
McCain (R): 45.3
Spread: Obama +2.1


Wait until after the 1st Debate to get worried. It is only 6 days away. :D

Keep the faith.

[Steffi]

Oh forgot to mention, I also know someone who "doesn't follow politics, I just vote for whoever my daughter tells me to." I was like WTF? Seriously? :eek::rolleyes:

Oh, I totally loved my colleague for "I'll vote for Mrs Merkel because she is a woman". When I was asking her about what her party does for people like her (or also me: small income, living alone) she couldn't answer that question. :rolleyes: But she's a woman. The only thing that matters. :rolleyes:

[NBM]

I would guess biden versus Palin debate will decide it for everyone...

especially when they see Palin is better than biden or BO.. and she is only running for the VP That could be... but usually the VP debate has little effect compared with the presidential debates.

Remember when Lloyd Bentsen clocked Dan Quayle in the VP debates, and Bush Sr. went on to easily win the election.

Unless Palin makes a huge error (which ain't gonna happen) when debating Gaffe Biden, the McCain/Obama debates will be decisive.

[abw11]

I am concerned.

It is amazing to me that someone with all of Obama's baggage and near zero experience can suddenly be the top candidate for president and be the absolute ruler of the Democratic Party.

I don't think the debates are going to be what turns things around. I hope that we see a dramatic increase in getting out the word of Obama's associations with far left radicals, racists, and crooks.

And more hammering that Obama wanted to pull out of Iraq and did not support the surge. Biden wanted to divide into 3 parts - a guarantee of civil war.

Obama has become extremely elusive. He just keeps changing his position to fit the moment and even flat out lies about his former statements.

But I am worried that the polls are so close.

[Centipede]

Maybe someone should offer Biden a drink (or two) before the debate to relax him. :D:D:D

[HumbleDave]

Maybe someone should offer Biden a drink (or two) before the debate to relax him. :D:D:D

Let me check and see if Ted has a spare bottle in his senate office......

[Mike78]

Nope, not concerned at all.

Polls really aren't that accurate because there are so many variables and not a large enough data set. Generally most of these polls are based off of what 1,000-2,000 people in a certain state think, and that could be effected by the region, gender, race, class, etc and doesn't really give you a representative idea of what everyone thinks.

For example, you could do a poll in an historically conservative state and if you poll the people in one of the few liberal towns, cities, counties, then the numbers would be skewed to make you believe that the majority of the people favor Obama.

Polls fluctuate and I never put much stock in them, that's why I didn't get all excited when McCain got his bounce. The only numbers I trust are the final ones.

[kpmom]

The economic news this week was bound to favor Obama. Even Investor's Business Daily newspaper, solidly behind McCain, said this week was a gift to the Obama campaign. If the market settles down, and it should, those headlines will be gone shortly. We may even see a market rally before election day.
That's not to say I'm not concerned. I believe the race will be very close. I just hope we don't have a repeat of 2000.

[deckert1]

I assure you they are more worried then we are!! They are wondering w/ the economy and Bush's negatives and the bad name the Republican brand has, why arent THEY up by 10-12%!

I have to agree w/ Rush Limbaugh that if bho is not up by 10 by mid October, then he will be blow out on Nov 4!

Stay strong and focus!!! We have work to do

Christian

[DeLana]

I think the polls mean very little until after the debates. So I'm not really concerned (OK, maybe just a little. BHO does have an astounding voter registration machine).

DeLana

[Laura Cereta]

No concern here... :)

I first verbalized my prediction in February, I repeated it in June, I'll repeat it in September, and you can watch it in November: BO will turn the map red. (Never underestimate the power of positive thinking. ;))

[nette60]

No concern here... :)

I first verbalized my prediction in February, I repeated it in June, I'll repeat it in September, and you can watch it in November: BO will turn the map red. (Never underestimate the power of positive thinking. ;))

I pray that you are right....I am physically sick from this farce of an election

[wulf12]

Obama always polls better than the actual results, so if we're tied or slightly behind on election day, we win.

He only got a bump because of the poor economic news, soon their will be an adjustment and McCain will be back ahead.

[ILBlue]

I can't for the life of me understand how Obama can get away with no response to the economic crisis. He met with advisors and then had no plan.

Sorry but is anyone out there following this race that has a brain?

Unless the polls are'nt showing it yet that is unexcusable in this crisis to have nothing substantive to say??????

Kind of like voting "Present" over a hundred times.

Absolutely like the Georgia situation when he had nothing of real importance to say.


He justs sits back and waits to see what his opponents say and then reacts it appears.

Just adds to my lack of confidence in his ability to be POTUS .

Seriously I think alot of people were paying attention to this issue and hecame away looking incompetant like Bush.

[AbbyPad]

Oh forgot to mention, I also know someone who "doesn't follow politics, I just vote for whoever my daughter tells me to." I was like WTF? Seriously? :eek::rolleyes:

Oh, is that Claire McCaskill? She decided for BHO because her daughter absolutely insisted!

[eyedoc333]

It's the electoral college, state-by-state, that will decide this election and not the overall popular vote (just ask Al Gore).

[Andy_Licious]

The economic news this week was bound to favor Obama. Even Investor's Business Daily newspaper, solidly behind McCain, said this week was a gift to the Obama campaign. If the market settles down, and it should, those headlines will be gone shortly. We may even see a market rally before election day.
That's not to say I'm not concerned. I believe the race will be very close. I just hope we don't have a repeat of 2000.

I have said this before and I'll say it again. Those pols who use daily events to guage the mood of the electorate and cater to them will end up burned. Events change quickly, and whats black one day is white the next. Remember this election was all about getting out of the Iraq war and it was the Dems to lose. Remember? Well, what is it about now?

I'll worry about the polls when it's 15 days before the election and BO is leading by more than 10.

[justme819]

It's the electoral college, state-by-state, that will decide this election and not the overall popular vote (just ask Al Gore).

That`s why I`m not worried...yet! McCain continues to be ahead there in most polls...regardless of what pop. polls are indicating. :cool:

[sflady]

It's the electoral college, state-by-state, that will decide this election and not the overall popular vote (just ask Al Gore).

Which is my concern, we all saw what happened in the Primary.

[encarn]

That`s why I`m not worried...yet! McCain continues to be ahead there in most polls...regardless of what pop. polls are indicating.

Michigan and Pennsylvania are in play??? What the hell??? GW's 3rd term is putting PA, WA, OR, ME, MN, MI in play???

Seriously.

[Jill4Hillary]

yes, yes and yes. Intellectually, I know that there will be volatility in the polls. Emotionally, I am depressed that Nobama is currently in the lead. :(

[Christines]

We can't just blog on this site. We have to go out there and fight. We have to donate, make phone calls from McCain's phone site, blog to the swing states,
talk to friends and relatives. We can't sit back and be passive. Too much is at stake!

[marc]

These polls are all off its even on rasmussen that they say they even poll more democrats then republicans. look at 2004

[Hillicrat]

I'd say since it was from Political, it's rigged. I agree that they have been more Pro Obama so I don't trust any results of those who favor him. I would also say that there are a lot of sleepers. They are the voters we don't know about and won't know about until it is time to vote.

[DC_Mark]

Moderator, can we merge this thread with the thread "Excellent article on polls (http://www.hillaryclintonforum.net/discussion/showthread.php?t=31089)"? The thread explains how Gallup alters their weighting factors and is definitely relevant to the discussion here. Thanks!

The bottom line: don't panic.

[CT-Hilltopper]

No concern here... :)

I first verbalized my prediction in February, I repeated it in June, I'll repeat it in September, and you can watch it in November: BO will turn the map red. (Never underestimate the power of positive thinking. ;))

I agree with Laura.

This is going to be the biggest washout since Dukakis.

Especially if the Republicans start to use some of the information we have about Barack Obama on this forum alone. It's factual and can be easily backed up.

[mjoynaples]

:) The Debates will change the tune of the race

and that is really bad....

[Jen the Michigander]

I am worried, but then again I am very high strung and I worry about EVERYTHING. So my reaction to the polls is not a good way to gauge the reality of the situation.

I expect John McCain will do well in the debates. He's had a lot of practice with the town hall meetings, which now include Sarah Palin. I'm hoping for another Saddleback performance from Obama. For Biden, I hope he does well enough to dispel the rumors that Hillary will be replacing him, yet not well enough to win over any new voters.

As far as the debates go, what I worry about is the media coverage. We were all there when Hillary trounced Obama in one debate after another, but then the pundits all claimed that he came out the winner. :mad: I can see this happening again. That's why I am hoping that Obama blows it big time, leaving no doubt in anyone's mind that McCain was better.

I also worry that the rumored October surprises are not real. We've heard so much about all this stuff for so many months, yet nothing ever surfaces. I also wonder why the Clintons were never able to dig up any of this dirt in time to save Hillary's candidacy? The most logical explanation is that there's nothing there, or that the evidence is so flimsy that nobody will believe it.

[SugnSpicesmom]

Maybe someone should offer Biden a drink (or two) before the debate to relax him.

Let me check and see if Ted has a spare bottle in his senate office......


Thank you both so much! I so needed a good laugh today and this gave it to me. No disrespect meant to an ailing Ted Kennedy, of course but what you said was funny!:D:D

[blazer615]

Politico has Obama at 50% and McCain at 44%. First of all do you believe these polls? Secondly are you concerned? Also do you think McCain needs to step it up?

no

[adventures7]

Politico has Obama at 50% and McCain at 44%. First of all do you believe these polls? Secondly are you concerned? Also do you think McCain needs to step it up?

Yes on all three.

I'm not normally a worrier however I truly believe with all my heart and soul that Obama is the WORST and most dangerous choice for this country so it's hard not to have anxiety when the polls are in their favor.

I'd like to say that I have faith that people will see him for who he is but people are attracted to darkness and evil.

[Repub4PumaSupporter]

I wouldn't worry about the national polls. Right now keep your eye on the electoral map, especially the state polls in the toss-up states (OH, PA, MI, CO, FL...etc)

[DC_Mark]

I mentioned this in the other thread, but figure that the message is worth repeating: McCain is winning. Compare the numbers for Sept 8-14 to those of Aug 25-31:

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/Electiondemo6.gif

Poll numbers are, obvious, not precise. Nonetheless, we can see the trends. Clearly, the addition of Palin is drawing voters with only high-school education and those who didn't finish college. Among college grads, the upward change is small but pronounced.

[Strongwomenrock]

With all the info on this forum alone the GOP would be set with material to use against Obama for years. The problem is McCain's too slow to respond to accusations made my BO. BO was all over McCain for the finacial mess and McCain responded two days later. Someone needs to light a fire under McCain's butt and quick!

[Adayamo]

I am scared!
I am really scared!

If nothing is going to happen until the 4th of November I will have to expect a heart attack when BHO wins. :(

[Vinnster]

It's the electoral college, state-by-state, that will decide this election and not the overall popular vote (just ask Al Gore).

Bingo. I will say it again. Ignore the national polls, they mean nothing. What matters is the state by state polling reflecting what is the Electoral College count.

As has been mentioned and is historically accurate, whatever the polls say on election day the Republican canidate will get 1-3% more votes.

By the above standards McCain is still going to win, by a good margin.

[Steffi]

I am scared!
I am really scared!

If nothing is going to happen until the 4th of November I will have to expect a heart attack when BHO wins. :(

Don't look at the polls before november. ;)

[csiako]

actually the good news is that the poll yesterday by gallup(20 sept 2008)
had McCain Leading 47.4 to Obama's 46.2
the reason its 49-45 is because they average 3 day polls