Interesting tidbit on polls (virginiavirtucon)

[Ikasu]

Saw this on Hillbuzz, a look on the polls.


I was having dinner a night ago with a friend of mine who is a statistician for a well-regarded private polling company. They do some work for Republicans in California, but most of the work they do is for Democrats or Democrat-leaning operations (Unions, etc.). Anyway, her shop was retained to do a few Presidential polls for targetted states on behalf of a union so the union could decide where to spend their ad dollars for the last week. They did Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Missouri. After mocking the hell out of the voter id spreads used by Rassmussen, Zogby, etc. (and this is coming from a committed Dem who will be voting for Barry O) she said the results of their polling lead her to believe that McCain will definitely win FL, OH, NC, MO and NV. She says Obama definitely wins New Mexico. She said that Colorado and New Hampshire were absolute dead heats. She said she thinks there is a 55% chance Obama holds on in Pennsylvania and a 75% chance McCain wins Virginia. She absolutely laughed at the public polls showing Obama leading Virginia–and pointed out that all of those polls rely on Dem turnout being +4 and as much as +7, when in 2006, Republicans actually had the advantage by +3. She also pointed out that the numbers for Obama in SWVA look absolutely awful and that McCain is running 10 points better then Allen did in NoVa.

Anyway, her companies conclusion is that the election will come down to Colorado, New Hampshire and the Republican leaning district in Maine, which in her opinion might very well decide the Presidency (apparently the district in Nebraska that Obama thought he might be able to get is now off the table). She said she has very little doubt that the public polling is part of a “concerted voter suppression effort” by the MSM. She said IBD/TIPP was the only outfit doing public polling that was “worth a bucket of warm piss”.


http://virginiavirtucon.wordpress.com/2008/10/24/interesting-tidbit-on-polls/

[CountryFirst]

That would be hillarious if Maine decided the election.

They have lots of snow "machines" up there ... :D

[Kbentleyis]

I think McCain will take PA. Close but he'll take it all the same.

[Calico]

She absolutely laughed at the public polls showing Obama leading Virginia–and pointed out that all of those polls rely on Dem turnout being +4 and as much as +7, when in 2006, Republicans actually had the advantage by +3. She also pointed out that the numbers for Obama in SWVA look absolutely awful and that McCain is running 10 points better then Allen did in NoVa.

Completely agree with the assessment of Virginia. I feel certain the SWVA number are dreadful for Obama. Glad to hear about Northern Virginia!

[Isis46]

YouTube - Animal House: Germans Bombed Pearl Harbor


Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?*

Many thanks to the Hot Air commenter, whose name I forgot to write down, who pointed me to this:

"You cannot tell from appearances how things will go. Sometimes imagination makes things out far worse than they are; yet without imagination not much can be done. Those people who are imaginative see many more dangers than perhaps exist; certainly many more than will happen; but then they must also pray to be given that extra courage to carry this far-reaching imagination...

"This is the lesson: never give in, never give in, never, never, never, never -- in nothing, great or small, large or petty -- never give in except to convictions of honour and good sense. Never yield to force; never yield to the apparently overwhelming might of the enemy."

That was Winston Churchill in Oct. 1941, talking about the Nazis. This was months before the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor. America had showed support for Britain, but we hadn't entered the war. And still Churchill was defiant. He looked the dirty stinking Nazis right in the eye and said, "No. Not on my watch."

How about a little of that, guys?

Note to my fellow countrymen: You are reading this without fear of censure or repression, in a room that is neither unlivably hot nor cold, free from hunger or able to remedy it within minutes. You have the hard-earned knowledge and wisdom of human history at your fingertips. You can get up from your computer and go wherever you want, do whatever you want, as long as you don't hurt anybody else. Or you can exercise your right to reply to me, or to anyone, in any manner you choose. And you can make yourself heard.

You're free, in a way that Americans in 1941 never could have imagined. You have more power as a private individual than anyone else in the history of the world. Right now.

You can talk back to the people who are lying to you, lying about you. You are not helpless. We are not helpless. Their constant drumbeat -- "Obama is inevitable, Obama is inevitable, Obama is inevitable" -- is a sign of weakness, not strength. If they really thought he could win on his own merits, they wouldn't be trying so hard to brainwash you.

Most of all, you can vote. You might try to outwit yourself: "Well, I live in a blue state, so my vote doesn't matter anyway. Besides, they've already pretty much bragged about how they're going to steal the election, and they're getting away with it." All the more reason to take a little time out of your day on Nov. 4 and spite them. They think we're stupid. They think we're cowards. They think we'll believe whatever they say just because they're the ones saying it. Personally, I have no interest in proving them right.

So: Do you think maybe you can hold it together in the face of a few biased polls, princess? A few ads funded by fraudulent donations from Allah knows who? A few turncoat pundits who wouldn't waste their Zinfandel-tinged spit on you? Do you think you can keep from browning up your panties for just 10 more days, dear heart?

http://jimtreacher.com/archives/001811.html

[DrLisa]

Wow.....I think JM will win Colorado. His signs are everywhere here.

[sarge]

I have to say, I don't want to jinx anything, but I will share an observation I made today.

I live in NC and I voted today.

I live in an area with a lot of northern transplants, I myself being a northern transplant.

Anyway, in 2004, I rarely ever saw a Bush sign. I had seen many Kerry signs, but Bush signs where non existant. We all know Bush won this state handily.

Well the last few weeks I have noticed a jump in the number of McCain Palin signs.

At this point, atleast as far as yard signs go, in my area they are wiping out the Obama signs. This from an area without a single Bush sign in 2004.

I went out to the Supermarket and in the span of 5 minutes counted 5 seperate cars with McCain Palin signs. Not a Single Obama sticker in that time.

My feeling is this. I always expect to see more Democrat signs and stickers as Democrats generally consist of a higher number of people who do that sort of thing.

Conservatives seem to tend to mind there own business and just go vote. They tend to not want anyone knowing there business.

Now of course there are exceptions to this, but generally I "think" this is true.


Now it's not all good news. I went to Durham a few weeks ago and saw more Obama stickers then I have ever seen in my life. They were everywhere.

Understand though, Durham is very Heavy Dem!

[foxyladi]

That would be hillarious if Maine decided the election.

They have lots of snow "machines" up there ... :D

and a lot of patriots............

[hillwillwin08]

and a lot of patriots............

And GHW Bush has a house in Kennebunkport :)

[diane]

I think McCain will take PA.

I would love it if Maine or better yet NY (I know...fantasy time), gave McCain his win. But I really really really wan't PA, FL and MI and all the States that Hillary legitimately won to go to McCain.

Apparently, Investers Business Daily was the closest in their polling/predictions for the 2004 outcome, and they have McCain/BO really close within 2points of each other. Not that we'd know that from the headlines being shouted that the race is over and Obama won (Sound familiar PUMAs?).

[reddirtgirl]

Thanks for posting that bit of encouragement! :)