(10-25-08) Professional Statistics Analyist - Don't Trust Polls (Virgina Virtucon)

[Isis46]

For those of us who need a little something uplifting:

I was having dinner a night ago with a friend of mine who is a statistician for a well-regarded private polling company. They do some work for Republicans in California, but most of the work they do is for Democrats or Democrat-leaning operations (Unions, etc.). Anyway, her shop was retained to do a few Presidential polls for targetted states on behalf of a union so the union could decide where to spend their ad dollars for the last week. They did Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Missouri. After mocking the hell out of the voter id spreads used by Rassmussen, Zogby, etc. (and this is coming from a committed Dem who will be voting for Barry O) she said the results of their polling lead her to believe that McCain will definitely win FL, OH, NC, MO and NV. She says Obama definitely wins New Mexico. She said that Colorado and New Hampshire were absolute dead heats. She said she thinks there is a 55% chance Obama holds on in Pennsylvania and a 75% chance McCain wins Virginia. She absolutely laughed at the public polls showing Obama leading Virginia–and pointed out that all of those polls rely on Dem turnout being +4 and as much as +7, when in 2006, Republicans actually had the advantage by +3. She also pointed out that the numbers for Obama in SWVA look absolutely awful and that McCain is running 10 points better then Allen did in NoVa.

Anyway, her companies conclusion is that the election will come down to Colorado, New Hampshire and the Republican leaning district in Maine, which in her opinion might very well decide the Presidency (apparently the district in Nebraska that Obama thought he might be able to get is now off the table). She said she has very little doubt that the public polling is part of a “concerted voter suppression effort” by the MSM. She said IBD/TIPP was the only outfit doing public polling that was “worth a bucket of warm piss”.

http://virginiavirtucon.wordpress.com/

Keep your eye on the prize. If we can avoid Obama in 2008, I would be grateful for Clinton in 2012 -- and I say this as a 16-year Republican.

[Ikasu]

lol posted this 2 minutes before you!

[Isis46]

I caught that, too! I try so hard not to double post -- I should realize someone here would have caught this delicious bit of news!

[Ikasu]

I caught that, too! I try so hard not to double post -- I should realize someone here would have caught this delicious bit of news!

Yea, but you came up with a better title!

Interesting her remarks on Maine. Is McCain competitive there? Wasn't sure what they meant by a Republican district there.

[Ikasu]

Yea, but you came up with a better title!

Interesting her remarks on Maine. Is McCain competitive there? Wasn't sure what they meant by a Republican district there.

NM. I see.

Two states, Maine and Nebraska, select one elector within each congressional district by popular vote, and additionally select the remaining two electors by the aggregate, statewide popular vote. This method has been used in Maine since 1972, and in Nebraska since 1992.

[writerchick]

Keep your eye on the prize. If we can avoid Obama in 2008, I would be grateful for Clinton in 2012 -- and I say this as a 16-year Republican.

OMG! That just warmed my Dem heart. It's like we've been in the trenches together. And as a 18-year Democrat, I'll be grateful for McCain in 2008, believe you me... I'll throw my own secret McCain victory celebration, right in the heart of liberal NYC! :eek:

[Isis46]

I sense a 2000-esque nail-biter Nov. 4th. I have vowed I AM NOT turning on the TV or radio. I will be monitoring HCF, because I want my news given to me -- good or bad -- from friends (not elite media types).

[Wyoming Dem]

“worth a bucket of warm piss”. :eek::D:eek::D

I wonder what the going rate is?

[KathyforHillary]

Yea, but you came up with a better title!

Interesting her remarks on Maine. Is McCain competitive there? Wasn't sure what they meant by a Republican district there.

Maine splits its electoral votes; it is not winner take all. Northern Maine is Republican, southern Maine is Democratic. That's why Sarah, and Todd, went to northern Main. McCain camp thinks they have a chance to pick up one electoral vote if northern Maine goes Republican and the race is close enough that every vote counts.

[Bets1]

...(apparently the district in Nebraska that Obama thought he might be able to get is now off the table)

Whew [wiping brow] -- I've been very worried about Douglas County going for Obama. I hope she is correct!

[Wyoming Dem]

OMG! That just warmed my Dem heart. It's like we've been in the trenches together. And as a 18-year Democrat, I'll be grateful for McCain in 2008, believe you me... I'll throw my own secret McCain victory celebration, right in the heart of liberal NYC! :eek:

Isn't it the most amazing thing? I am working at the Pub headquarters in my county and all the folks there knew me previously and knew I was a life-long Dem. At first, they were incredulous and now they like yanking my chain.
One of them secretly put a taped on bumpersticker on my truck that said "I was a Dem...I was wrong and I am getting help". Of course it took me two days of driving around all over the place before I noticed it on my truck. They laughed so hard at me they about peed their pants. I am happy to provide so much entertainment in their otherwise dull farm and ranch lives!

[Ron4Hill]

Thanks! Fascinating! Gives us hope.

[Horizon]

Isn't it the most amazing thing? I am working at the Pub headquarters in my county and all the folks there knew me previously and knew I was a life-long Dem. At first, they were incredulous and now they like yanking my chain.
One of them secretly put a taped on bumpersticker on my truck that said "I was a Dem...I was wrong and I am getting help". Of course it took me two days of driving around all over the place before I noticed it on my truck. They laughed so hard at me they about peed their pants. I am happy to provide so much entertainment in their otherwise dull farm and ranch lives!

That is a hoot!!! You must be providing them with HOURS of entertainment!!!

[Wyoming Dem]

That is a hoot!!! You must be providing them with HOURS of entertainment!!!

Oh yeah...they are real cards. Seriously, they asked me a lot of questions about what made me resign from the Dem party and they asked me if it was mainly about Hillary and of course I told them yes, partly but all the other reasons we all talk about on here. They did not know half the stuff about Obama. THese are all working people, mainly farmers and ranchers and they are TERRIFIED of Obama. And it doen't have a damn thing to do with race.
All the men are just thrilled with Palen (which in a predominantly Mormon community I would have thought otherwise?) ANyway, they get a real insight with me as most of them arn't online a lot. And of course, they love parading me around as their "token" Democrat!

[CountryFirst]

Whew [wiping brow] -- I've been very worried about Douglas County going for Obama. I hope she is correct!

I lived in Douglas County for six years, most of that time as a Democrat. It's always a Democratic pipedream to take that one electoral vote for the presidential race. But it NEVER happens.

Nebraska is conservative. Even our Democrats are conservative. Nebraska's Democratic Senator Ben Nelson probably won't even vote for Obama. But the other Senator, that nitwit Republican Chuck Hagel, is voting for Obama ... GRRR....

[jerseygirl7]

I sense a 2000-esque nail-biter Nov. 4th. I have vowed I AM NOT turning on the TV or radio. I will be monitoring HCF, because I want my news given to me -- good or bad -- from friends (not elite media types).


Me too! Although a close second is to undergo general anesthesia or maybe a drunken stupor (sounds good but not likely!) until all states have voted!!! I don't know how I'd be able to keep focused at work.

[HILLARYCLINTONRULES]

I knew those dastardly polls were fake! :mad:

[DC_Mark]

I have a feeling that Pennsylvania will turn red.

[HILLARYCLINTONRULES]

and no sympathy for the Obamabots!!!

[iami]

NM. I see.

Right on! I'm getting to love my state more and more.

McCain/Pailin are not competitive in southern Maine which is dominated by the city of Portland, the Boston bedroom communities, and tourist communities.

They are extremely competitive in northern Maine and that is why Palin was sent to Bangor for a rally.

Northern Maine (2nd congressional district, home of republican Senator Olympia Snowe) is somewhat politically divided in the coastal areas where I live. There is a mix of left-leaning "newcomers" who can best be described as aging hippies/children of aging hippies who have been raised on a diet of white guilt and John Lennon (as well as a few Bill Ayer types) and a more traditional Maine "Joe the Plumber", hard-working, primarily blue collar group. The former constiuency are solidly for Obama; the latter constiuency are a mixture of Dems and Repubs who vote solidly for Snowe and now are solidly for McCain.

The non-coastal areas, with the possible exception of Orono, where lies the University of Maine (infested with the usual professorial nutjobs), will go for McCain.

That's it in a nutshell. If one electoral vote is what it takes, we may just deliver.