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View Full Version : (9-20-09) "Kremlin says Israel promised not to strike Iran" (Reuters)


agatha
09-22-2009, 12:30 AM
source (http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE58J0NQ20090920?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews)


MOSCOW (Reuters) - Israel promised Russia it would not launch an attack on Iran, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said in an interview aired on Sunday in which he described such an assault as "the worst thing that can be imagined."

Israel has hinted it could forcibly deny Iran the means to make an atomic bomb if it refuses to suspend uranium enrichment and has criticized Russia for agreeing to supply to Tehran S-300 anti-aircraft weapons that could complicate an attack.

In an interview with CNN recorded on Tuesday, Medvedev denied Moscow was backing Iran but said it had the right to supply defensive weapons and said sanctions against Tehran should only be used as a last resort.

An attack would lead to "a humanitarian disaster, a vast number of refugees, Iran's wish to take revenge and not only upon Israel, to be honest, but upon other countries as well," Medvedev said, according to a Kremlin transcript.

"But my Israeli colleagues told me that they were not planning to act in this way and I trust them."

During a meeting in the Russian resort of Sochi in August, Israeli President Shimon Peres said Israel would not attack Iran, Medvedev said. After the meeting, Peres told journalists Medvedev had promised to reconsider a contract to sell S-300s to Iran.

"When he visited me in Sochi, Israeli President Peres said something important for us all: 'Israel does not plan to launch any strikes on Iran, we are a peaceful country and we will not do this'," Medvedev said.

Asked about the possible delivery of S-300s, Medvedev said Russia had the right to sell defensive weapons to Iran.

SANCTIONS

"Our task is not to strengthen Iran and weaken Israel or vice versa but our task is to ensure a normal, calm situation in the Middle East," Medvedev said.

On Western calls for sanctions on Iran, he said such moves were often ineffective and action should only be taken as a last resort.

"Before speaking of applying additional sanctions, we should make full use of the existing possibilities," he said. "We should be absolutely confident that we have no other option."

Analysts have been watching for Russian concessions on Iran after the White House on Thursday canceled plans to site elements of a missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic, but CNN interviewed Medvedev before the announcement.

Medvedev said he was hopeful Moscow's relations with Washington would improve under President Barack Obama and described the chances of an agreement on a new treaty to reduce strategic nuclear weapons by year-end as "quite high."

But he was critical of mixed messages coming from the White House. Continued...




Has anyone given much thought to just what will happen if Israel does attack?

CGP
09-22-2009, 12:52 AM
Has anyone given much thought to just what will happen if Israel does attack?

Things would get VERY messy! :eek:

agatha
09-22-2009, 12:55 AM
Things would get VERY messy! :eek:



I hate to even type it, but I am not seeing any other likely alternatives.

mavfin
09-22-2009, 12:57 AM
Things would get VERY messy! :eek:

What has to be also looked at is: How messy would/will it get if Iran gets nuclear weapons, and uses them on Israel, or Europe, or the US, or anywhere else, for that matter? How likely is it that they would use them. Will they just join MAD, or would they ignore that and go out in a blaze of glory?

i.e. do they truly understand the consequences of using those weapons?

I don't have the answer, but, you have to weigh some mess now versus how likely it is for there to be a much bigger mess later. As I said, I don't have those answers, but they have to be thought about.

tracker
09-22-2009, 12:57 AM
I don't see how Israel can or would promise such a thing to Russia. It depends on what Iran does and how their nuclear program progresses!

Ikasu
09-22-2009, 01:08 AM
You think Iran will magically feel like not pursuing weapons anymore if they're bombed? They will just redouble their efforts. It's why we're moving to build a defense umbrella over the middle east.

mavfin
09-22-2009, 01:17 AM
You think Iran will magically feel like not pursuing weapons anymore if they're bombed? They will just redouble their efforts. It's why we're moving to build a defense umbrella over the middle east.

Oh, I have no question that they will try again. However, the question that's unanswered is whether they will use them for deterrence, or if they will actually use them to attack their perceived enemies, whether those are Israel, Western Europe, the US, or anyone else. Do they understand what's going to happen to them if a bomb that can be traced to them goes off in London? Or New York? Or Moscow? Or Tel Aviv? And it will be traced to them. Uranium/Plutonium batches have unique fingerprints.

I don't think they do, or, they think that the price is justified. I'd rather not see that kind of bloodbath, but they may not care.

Ikasu
09-22-2009, 01:23 AM
Oh, I have no question that they will try again. However, the question that's unanswered is whether they will use them for deterrence, or if they will actually use them to attack their perceived enemies, whether those are Israel, Western Europe, the US, or anyone else. Do they understand what's going to happen to them if a bomb that can be traced to them goes off in London? Or New York? Or Moscow? Or Tel Aviv? And it will be traced to them. Uranium/Plutonium batches have unique fingerprints.

I don't think they do, or, they think that the price is justified. I'd rather not see that kind of bloodbath, but they may not care.

I think it's for deterrence reasons. Ahmadinejad does not control Iran's armed forces or Iran's foreign policy, that's the supreme leader's role. It seems we've been basing a lot of these FP decisions on Ahmadinejad's insane antisemitic rants. We know how to deal with Iran. They launch a nuke and it's the end of their country.

mavfin
09-22-2009, 01:30 AM
I think it's for deterrence reasons. Ahmadinejad does not control Iran's armed forces or Iran's foreign policy, that's the supreme leader's role. It seems we've been basing a lot of these FP decisions on Ahmadinejad's insane antisemitic rants. We know how to deal with Iran. They launch a nuke and it's the end of their country.

That's the thing. We're not sure he knows that. If we were sure he knew that, Iran and nukes wouldn't be such a scary proposition. For example, North Korea tested nukes last year. I think afterward, China took him aside and told him rather forcefully to be careful with his new toys. He's been awfully quiet about them since. Obviously, China would eat some fallout from the retaliation if North Korea did something stupid. Russia may be telling Iran the same thing for the same reason, of course.

Ikasu
09-22-2009, 01:55 AM
That's the thing. We're not sure he knows that. If we were sure he knew that, Iran and nukes wouldn't be such a scary proposition. For example, North Korea tested nukes last year. I think afterward, China took him aside and told him rather forcefully to be careful with his new toys. He's been awfully quiet about them since. Obviously, China would eat some fallout from the retaliation if North Korea did something stupid. Russia may be telling Iran the same thing for the same reason, of course.

Right. The Russians have probably already told them. And we will tell them. But just in case they are that crazy/stupid with their weapons, we're building a nice defense shield in the region.

mavfin
09-22-2009, 01:58 AM
Right. The Russians have probably already told them. And we will tell them. But just in case they are that crazy/stupid with their weapons, we're building a nice defense shield in the region.

That defense shield is nice, but incoming RVs are still hard as hell to shoot down, because the speed limits the engagement time. I'd rather depend on deterring them from ever firing them off than shooting them down. Even one getting through is a disaster.

Ikasu
09-22-2009, 01:59 AM
That defense shield is nice, but incoming RVs are still hard as hell to shoot down, because the speed limits the engagement time. I'd rather depend on deterring them from ever firing them off than shooting them down. Even one getting through is a disaster.

Right. I agree.

foxyladi
09-22-2009, 01:10 PM
maybe if they don't feel threatened.they won't need the bomb

TheTaoOfBill
09-22-2009, 01:27 PM
maybe if they don't feel threatened.they won't need the bomb

qft

NativeSun
09-22-2009, 05:38 PM
I don't see how Israel can or would promise such a thing to Russia. It depends on what Iran does and how their nuclear program progresses!

Yeah, I'm very skeptical of that as well. And Israel is not a stranger to how Russia operates. Trust but Verify.