(5/23/10) GOP wins House seat in Obama's home district (AP/MSNBC)

[VotingHillary]

HONOLULU - Republicans scored a midterm election victory Saturday when Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou won a Democratic-held House seat in Hawaii in the district where President Barack Obama grew up.

The congressional race should have been a cakewalk for Democrats. The seat had been held by a Democrat for nearly 20 years and is located in the district where Obama was born and spent most of his childhood.

"This is a momentous day. We have sent a message to the United States Congress. We have sent a message to the national Democrats. We have sent a message to the machine," Djou said. "The congressional seat is not owned by one political party. This congressional seat is owned by the people."

Djou received 67,274 votes, or 39.5 percent. He was trailed by state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, a Democrat who received 52,445 votes, or 30.8 percent. The other leading Democrat, former U.S. Rep. Ed Case, received 47,012 votes, or 27.6 percent.

Republicans see the victory as a powerful statement about their momentum heading into November. They already sent a Republican to the U.S. Senate to replace the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts — a place that was once thought to be the most hostile of territories for the GOP. Now Republicans can say they won a congressional seat in the former backyard of the president and in a state that gave Obama 72 percent of the vote two years ago.

More at link: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37298294/ns/politics-capitol_hill/

I think this song is appropriate:

YouTube- BB King, "The Thrill is Gone"

[Spang]

The Democrats split the vote. That was retarded. One of those Democrats should have bowed out.

[Jim744]

Great! This ain't the year of the dragon but the year of the republican I have a sneaky feeling.

[VotingHillary]

Great! This ain't the year of the dragon but the year of the republican I have a sneaky feeling.

I don't want this year to be the year of the Republicans...nor the year of the Democrats.

I want this year to be the year of the people..period.

[VotingHillary]

The Democrats split the vote. That was retarded. One of those Democrats should have bowed out.

or at least been offered a job by the White House like Sestak got offered...

[Jim744]

I don't want this year to be the year of the Republicans...nor the year of the Democrats.

I want this year to be the year of the people..period.

Well, I think the peoples' choice will be heavily republican.

[Valin]

Honolulu Advertiser (http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/20100522/BREAKING01/100522028/GOP+s+Djou+wins+Hawaii+special+election+for+Congre ss)
5/22/10

Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou has won the special election in urban Honolulu's 1st Congressional District, the first Republican sent to Washington, D.C., to represent the Islands in two decades.

According to final count from the state Office of Elections, Djou had 39.4 percent of the vote, followed by 30.8 percent for state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa and 27.6 percent for former congressman Ed Case. The remaining 11 other candidates attracted the rest of the vote.

The results are for ballots mailed in or dropped off through Friday and ballots received today, accounting for all of the votes cast in the winner-take-all special election.

Djou would serve out the remaining months of former congressman Neil Abercrombie's term in Congress, which ends in January 2011. Abercrombie resigned in February to concentrate on his campaign in the Democratic primary for governor.

(Snip)

Case and Hanabusa split the Democratic vote, as public and private polls had predicted.


Campaign Spot: I Said He Could Djou This, And He Did It! (http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/55935/i-said-he-could-djou-and-he-did-it)
Jim Geraghty
5/23/10

In a unique set of circumstances – two major Democrats on the ballot, and only one Republican – the GOP’s Charles Djou wins the special House election in Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District. It is not a surprise, but I am sure, to many Republicans, it is a relief and a welcome bit of good news.

(R) Charles Djou: 67,610 votes, 39.4 percent

(D) Colleen Hanabusa, 52,802 votes, 30.8 percent

(D) Ed Case 47,391 votes, 27.6 percent

National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) Chairman Pete Sessions (R-TX) issued the following statement:

“I congratulate Charles Djou for his victory and a successful campaign based on the widely-shared values of cutting spending, shrinking government and creating real, permanent American jobs. I have no doubt that Hawaii families will be well-represented in Congress as he joins our fight to return common sense economic policies and fiscal sanity to Washington.

“Eighteen months ago, President Obama carried this district with seventy percent of the vote, which makes Charles Djou’s victory an impressive one......(Snip)

One of my guys on the ground looks at the preliminary numbers on the ground and concludes:

Likely rematch in Nov between Djou and Hanabusa. I don’t think Case can beat her one-on-one, and the fact that she rallied to beat him in the late balloting when the early polls had him up over her, shows he won’t be able to beat her in August. But, between the two, I think Djou would like to have Hanabusa as his opponent rather than Case. She’s got baggage, and she’s completely tied to the Dem. machine. Independents are more likely to go for Djou with her as his opponent, than they would be if Case was an option. I think among Case’s 27.6% are a ton of independents. The minor candidates got less than 3% total — good news for Hanabusa since it shows that Djou is going to have to mine Case’s voters for most of the 11% more he’ll need in Nov., and the biggest portion of those voters are Democrats.

[Foggy]

A report from one of my gfs in HI:

Well shoots, my worthless city councilman Djou heads off to Washington with his inflatable Aerobed for his 6 month DC vacation. He'll fly off knowing that 39% of the people he represents want him there, & 61% don't . The surprise was that Hanabusa took 30.8% & Case was last with 27.6% Personal lession taken: I should have kept my vote with the candidate I liked best & ignored the polls, not that it would have made a difference in the outcome. Looks like Hanabusa will be our next Congressman in November, after the Djou "era."

[Valin]

Charles Djou


=D>

[Kbentleyis]

Good luck to him. We'll just have to wait to see what November holds for all of the winners.

[hillwillwin08]

The headline GOP takes House seat in Obama's Hawaiian home district.
is still embarrassing for Obama even though it can be "explained".

Anyone know if Obama endorsed any one of the Dems in this race?

[foxyladi]

we tried to tell them:eek:

[CGP]

Merged.

[devildog]

I don't want this year to be the year of the Republicans...nor the year of the Democrats.

I want this year to be the year of the people..period.

You are spot on today!

genericstamp!

[foxyladi]

I don't want this year to be the year of the Republicans...nor the year of the Democrats.

I want this year to be the year of the people..period.

it,s our turn**==:thumbsup:

[Suzan]

I don't want this year to be the year of the Republicans...nor the year of the Democrats.

I want this year to be the year of the people..period.

genericstamp!

How is trading Democrats for Republicans going to help? Enough of the partisanship. Let's teach both parties a lesson. Neither one of them pays any attention to their constituents, except at election time when they need us.

[foxyladi]

I sent a box of kleenex to the W.H.:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

[RE:]

The headline GOP takes House seat in Obama's Hawaiian home district.
is still embarrassing for Obama even though it can be "explained".

Anyone know if Obama endorsed any one of the Dems in this race?No...at least not right before polling, because the DCCC pulled funds away from this particular election because they knew Djou was going to win and they wanted to save the money for November.

I watched the debate and Case and Hanabusa were totally butting heads. It's like they were on totally different teams. So much for party unity. [-X I believe Hanabusa got endorsed by Inouye and that is why she pulled into second place above Case.

Here's the source of this info from May 10th:

DCCC pulls out of Hawaii
Posted: Monday, May 10, 2010 10:55 AM by Mark Murray


From NBC's Mark Murray
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee today announced that it would not be investing more resources into the May 22 special congressional election in Hawaii to replace Neil Abercrombie (D), who is running for governor.

Polls show that the Republican candidate in the winner-take-all contest, Charles Djou, is leading because the two Democrats in the race, Ed Case and Colleen Hanabusa, are splitting the Democratic vote.

“The DCCC will not be investing additional resources in the HI-01 (Abercrombie-open) special election," said DCCC spokeswoman Jennifer Crider. "Local Democrats were unable to work out their differences. The DCCC will save the resources we would have invested in the Hawaii special election this month for the general election in November.”

If Djou wins the special on May 22, he will still have to run for re-election in November, and Democrats are confident they will beat him in this congressional district where President Obama won 70% of the vote -- when Dems are no longer splitting their votes.

Still, a Djou victory this month would send temporary political shockwaves because it's the congressional district where Obama grew up.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2010/05/10/2298641.aspx

[spikeytx86]

I am glad he won, we could use a lot more Republicans like him. But sadly he will be voted out in November, he doesn't have a chance.

[Aria]

...How is trading Democrats for Republicans going to help? Enough of the partisanship. Let's teach both parties a lesson. Neither one of them pays any attention to their constituents, except at election time when they need us.

What do you propose, Suzan? I'd be happy to do that but it seems to me that it's apt to come down to the lesser of two (or more) evils, plus what we think they stand for - or not vote at all. How do we teach them a lesson - vote all incumbents out? - or only the Republicans? I don't think a whole crop of newcomers in government is the answer to our problems. Throwing all the bums out might sound good now but we'd better know what we're replacing them with - so I hope that "wave" doesn't last, if that's what it is. Logically, we would throw out the bums who are making the policies and decisions we don't like. That's experience you know - the predictable. So, hopefully, it will come down to our own considered assessments of who we believe we can trust to work in what we consider the best interests of our country to be.

[foxyladi]

got a republican Governor too.:D

[Alces95]

What do you propose, Suzan? I'd be happy to do that but it seems to me that it's apt to come down to the lesser of two (or more) evils, plus what we think they stand for - or not vote at all. How do we teach them a lesson - vote all incumbents out? - or only the Republicans? I don't think a whole crop of newcomers in government is the answer to our problems. Throwing all the bums out might sound good now but we'd better know what we're replacing them with - so I hope that "wave" doesn't last, if that's what it is. Logically, we would throw out the bums who are making the policies and decisions we don't like. That's experience you know - the predictable. So, hopefully, it will come down to our own considered assessments of who we believe we can trust to work in what we consider the best interests of our country to be.

My thoughts (with homage to Whitney, My name's not Suzan...:))

Let no longer fund the primaries for political parties. They want to field a candidate for their group, then they can pay for it.

[Spang]

Lost in Hawaii

Yesterday, Republican Charles Djou won the special election in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District encompassing Honolulu. Djou received 39.4 percent of the vote. Two Democrats, Colleen Hanabusa and Ed Case, received 30.8 and 27.6 percent of the vote, respectively, to finish in second and third place.

Placing the election into context is tricky. Djou won, becoming the first Republican to represent the District since 1991. And he isn't exceptionally moderate -- opposing for example civil unions in addition to gay marriage.

Still, Democratic candidates got most of the vote -- specifically, their candidates got a combined 59.8 percent of two-party vote, after excluding spoilt ballots and votes for minor-party candidates.

Hawaii has a PVI of D+11. As per the chart that we posted last week, Democrats would ordinarily be expected to get about 65 percent of the two-way vote in such a district in a political environment which looked like 2006 or 2008:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ov-pT1x-W8Y/S_JSOsm1ZUI/AAAAAAAADVY/oCg6PuAHlzM/s400/insurgent5.png

60 percent, on the other hand, would have been a fairly typical performance in a D+11 district in an environment that looked more like 2004 -- which of course would be bad news for the Democrats since the Republicans won a majority of seats in the House that year.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ov-pT1x-W8Y/S_JTCFBwYcI/AAAAAAAADVg/oDu6qh7jg10/s400/insurgent5.png

However, there is a fair amount of variance in these estimates. PVI is a useful bechmark, but will hardly tell us everything that we might want to know about the contingencies of a particular race in a particular district. Perhaps Hawaii, for instance, is not truly a D+11, since PVI is based on the performance of the candidates in the past two Presidential elections, and in 2008 Barack Obama, who is from Hawaii, significantly overperformed in the Aloha State. Prior to 2008 -- based on the election results of 2000 and 2004 -- Hawaii had a PVI of D+7. In an open seat election in a D+7 district, getting about 60 percent of the vote would fairly typical for Democrats, even in a good political climate like 2006 or 2008. On the other hand, maybe Barack Obama should still have been expected to have some coattails, even though he wasn't on the ballot.

You can make an argument that Democrats got more of the vote than they would have if there were merely two candidates. It's conceivable, for instance, that some of the votes for the moderate, Ed Case, would have gone to Djou rather than the liberal Hanabusa had he not been on the ballot. On the other hand, the internecine battle between the Democrats, and the fact that the national party pulled out of the race two weeks early, may have hurt their their enthusiasm and turnout and could have cost them a couple of points from what they otherwise might have achieved.

Long story short, this election was really just an amuse-bouche that served to whet our appetities, but didn't really provide much sustenance in terms of our understanding of the political environment. It clearly wasn't good news for Democrats. But, given the circumstances of the election, the outcome wasn't out-of-bounds from something that might have occurred to them even in a good political environment like 2008. (Had Djou received, say, 45 percent of the vote, or obviously an outright majority, that would have been a more peruasive indicator that the Democrats were in trouble.)

Also, the election wasn't such bad news for one particular Democrat: Colleen Hanabusa. Most polls projected her to finish in third place, although some smart observers had warned ahead of time that the polls might be lowballing her numbers. Having done better than Case in the special election, she may have undermined his claim to be the more electable Democrat, which could help her when the candidates square off again in the primary later this year.

The Source (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/lost-in-hawaii.html)

[foxyladi]

I am glad he won, we could use a lot more Republicans like him. But sadly he will be voted out in November, he doesn't have a chance.

Scott Brown:D

[RE:]

I am glad he won, we could use a lot more Republicans like him. But sadly he will be voted out in November, he doesn't have a chance.

Hahahaha...looks like Djou is up 4 points against Hanabusa and that was BEFORE their debate last night which was quite entertaining. Predictions made by pundits was Hanabusa would win by landslide in the general. Not only will it not be a landslide..he very well could win this thing. Amazing.

[jlynne]

genericstamp!

How is trading Democrats for Republicans going to help? Enough of the partisanship. Let's teach both parties a lesson. Neither one of them pays any attention to their constituents, except at election time when they need us.

You're making the same argument that the "Don't Vote" commercial made. I am beginning to give some serious thought to what the government would do if there was a "None of the Above" write in campaign.

[Alces95]

You're making the same argument that the "Don't Vote" commercial made. I am beginning to give some serious thought to what the government would do if there was a "None of the Above" write in campaign.

Under normal parlimentary (Roberts) rules, this is in place. When you want to be counted but think the options are not viable, you can activly vote this way. I will warn you, you will be ridiculed mercilessly by those who need power and the sheeple who do their bidding. Further, only a few will actually understand why one would vote that way.

Its called voting present.

[greenleaf]

Gee, it's a thread started by VH.

I'm getting nostalgic.

[Suzan]

You're making the same argument that the "Don't Vote" commercial made. I am beginning to give some serious thought to what the government would do if there was a "None of the Above" write in campaign.
Yes, that's fine for you and me. We already enjoy full civil rights. But as I just pointed out in the other thread, minorities with causes like immigration reform and equal rights should never ever sit out elections. They should align themselves with the party who's shown itself most willing to address their cause, even if imperfectly.

[jlynne]

Yes, that's fine for you and me. We already enjoy full civil rights. But as I just pointed out in the other thread, minorities with causes like immigration reform and equal rights should never ever sit out elections. They should align themselves with the party who's shown itself most willing to address their cause, even if imperfectly.

I disagree. I actually think minorities gain more power by withholding their support because they did not receive the benefits promised than for giving their support knowing they will not receive anything but lip service in return.

[EngCindy]

Looking at the results, this is no great GOP win. It's a internal Democratic fight.

The vey same thing may happen to the GOP in Alaska; the two GOP split the vote (Miller & Mulkowski) and the Democrat slides in.

Party unity seems to be hard to find, this election.

[RE:]

Looking at the results, this is no great GOP win. It's a internal Democratic fight.

The vey same thing may happen to the GOP in Alaska; the two GOP split the vote (Miller & Mulkowski) and the Democrat slides in.

Party unity seems to be hard to find, this election.

Yes Cindy. That was the case during the special election back when this thread was started in May. I only restarted this thread to update what is going on after the pundits said it would be a slaughter by the Dems in November. It's not that way at all in this race.

[foxyladi]

enjoyed the debate:D