If Super-Delegates followed their States...

[Jayling]

Just a little tid-bit for our Bloggers and those that comment in articles on the web.

Too often we've heard the cries of Obama supporters angrily stating that Super-Delegates should follow the wishes of the popular vote in their states. Well, that would be fine with me. In a winner-take-all (no proportional):

As of March 5th, if Supers followed their state's wishes (w/o FL & MI):
Clinton - 1746 Total Delegates
Obama - 1551 Total Delegates

2025 Delegates needed to win the nomination:
Clinton would only need 279 more / Obama would need 474.

-----

As of March 5th, if Supers followed their state's wishes (with FL, w/o MI):
Clinton - 1956 Total Delegates
Obama - 1551 Total Delegates

(2208 needed with both FL & MI being counted, unsure the breakdown for just one)

-----
As of March 5th, if Supers followed their state's wishes (with FL & MI):
Clinton - 2112 Total Delegates
Obama - 1551 Total Delegates

2208 need if both FL & MI were counted:
Clinton would need only 96 Delegates / Obama would need 657.

~~~

So yes, if they want to follow that angle of thought -- it's more than fine with me. Obama needs to step down -- today.

Jayling :)

[Patsy]

Couldn't agree more Jayling. He's got to stop acting like he's not a Politician and concede defeat NOW. Anyway you look at it, Hillary's arguments are in the best interest of the Party and a November win. He needs to push his ego aside, Michelle as well, and do what's right. His logic is flawed just like the rest of his, or whomever's, rhetoric he's preaching!

[Qulin]

I totally agree, my mom has being saying this from the get go.

[Carla]

Jayling-As always, thanks for the clear, concise post.

[skc1976]

Jayling,

Not to put you to more work, but keep the delegate allocation as it is without the winner take all. That puts him ahead in pledged. Now, given the states that each has won the popular vote in, take the superdelegates of each state and add them to the pledged delegates, what would that make the total?

For example, Virginia he would get the allocated delegates plus all the superdelegates from here. Texas she would get the allocated delegates plus all the superdelegates. What does that equal out to?

Thanks for doing this. It puts a new spin on things against the king of spinning.

[johnny51981]

Now wait a minute...that doesn't benefit Obama....so I don't think it is fair. Ok...why was I channelling BO there just now?

[Jayling]

Gotcha!

Okay, to be fair,using the proportional that's in place now:

Current proportional with Supers following their state's wishes:
Clinton - 1497.5
Obama - 1638.5

O would be up by 141
-----

Current proportional with Supers following their state's, plus FL & MI:
Clinton - 1550.5
Obama - 1638.5

O would be up by 88

-----

Not as favorable but still a close race just as it is now.

This primary/caucus, proportional/super, definitely needs changed in the future. It's a total mess.

[CGP]

Jayling - thanks for this information. Certainly helps with putting forward the case for Hillary. And with challenging some of the misinformation which is out there, both in the media and the public domain!

[johnny51981]

Why not make it easy for themselves and use the same counts as the Electoral College with zero Supers? That would make is clear enough, I would think....well just as clear as the General Elections.

[Jayling]

I do dislike the Electoral College, it seems so undemocratic.

Of all the states each has won to date by using the Electoral Vote method:

Clinton - 219
Obama - 184

With FL & MI:
Clinton - 263
Obama - 184

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

[johnny51981]

Yes, I dislike it too...but it keeps the voting consistent at least. And hey, it still works to our benefit! :)

[Jayling]

An important note about the Popular Votes.

Fox News earlier reported how close the PV would be if FL & MI were figured back in. Their numbers were using older totals (earlier contests have ballots still being counted and can change daily). But they did show how close it was, though had Obama up by 8,000.

But in fact, Hillary has more Popular Votes than O. My totals were taken from the Secretary of State results from each state just 2 days ago, so they're more up to date. Adding in these last 4 elections:

Popular Vote as of March 5th, with FL & MI:
Clinton - 13,589,377
Obama - 13,557,794

Clinton has 31,583 more Popular Votes to date (with FL & MI)

-----

Popular Vote as of March 5th, disenfranchising FL & MI:
Clinton - 12,390,082
Obama - 12,981,580

Obama has 591,498 more Popular Votes by thumbing noses at FL & MI

[skc1976]

Gotcha!

Okay, to be fair,using the proportional that's in place now:

Current proportional with Supers following their state's wishes:
Clinton - 1497.5
Obama - 1638.5

O would be up by 141
-----

Current proportional with Supers following their state's, plus FL & MI:
Clinton - 1550.5
Obama - 1638.5

O would be up by 88

-----

Not as favorable but still a close race just as it is now.

This primary/caucus, proportional/super, definitely needs changed in the future. It's a total mess.

Thanks for taking the time to figure this out. I figured with her winning the big states that mattered would really bring her up ahead of him with the superdelegates because I would figure CA, TX, NY, MA, NJ, OH to have a lot more superdelegates than most of the states he's won. I guess I was wrong...darn. No wonder Kerry wants them to follow their states.

[Kerry]

Just a little nugget to add to this discussion . . .

I just saw on the ABC Evening News that Hillary is actually ahead in the overall popular vote. It was only by a few thousand vote, but thought it was very interesting. I hadn't seen that discussed before and, given the tight race that it is, I think it's definitely worth noting. They didn't cite where they got the numbers, but maybe someone can find them online somewhere.

As an aside ----Believe it or not, my husband actually voted for Obama here in Maryland. Tonight at dinner he said that he has changed his mind and wants Hillary to win. Sure wish he (and the others like him) had made up their minds a bit sooner, but better late than never. Good thing for him, b/c I was not so quiet about my feelings regarding his vote. Her message is really making headway now and I think some people (like my husband) are a bit tired of the Obama hooplah and have started to actually think more critically about this election and what it means.

Go Hillary!

-K

[1950democrat]

Very good! Now some number cruncher could take the difference between the WA primary result and WA caucus result and extrapolate what a primary vote result might have been in all the caucus states. :D

[Jayling]

Just a little nugget to add to this discussion . . .

I just saw on the ABC Evening News that Hillary is actually ahead in the overall popular vote. It was only by a few thousand vote, but thought it was very interesting. I hadn't seen that discussed before and, given the tight race that it is, I think it's definitely worth noting. They didn't cite where they got the numbers, but maybe someone can find them online somewhere.
-K

Over at FoxNews, they kept spouting off numbers saying that Hillary was behind Obama by 3,000 votes in the Popular Vote (with FL & MI), but those numbers are NOT up to date. It isn't Hillary who is behind in the popular vote totals with Michigan & Florida included - Obama is the one losing the popular vote.

I just spent the last several hours going back to the Secretary of State's websites to get the latest numbers (new ballots are still coming in from much earlier elections), and here's where we stand as of late Wednesday night:

Popular Vote with Florida & Michigan:
Clinton - 13,629,380
Obama - 13,605,622

Hillary is ahead by 23,758 voters. (Fox kept saying she was behind by around 3,000)
-----

Popular Vote by disenfranchising FL & MI:
Clinton - 12,430,085
Obama - 13,029,408

Obama is ahead by 599,323 voters (by snubbing the people)

aargh! They drive me bonkers with their fuzzy math...

[johnny51981]

aargh! They drive me bonkers with their fuzzy math...
Not fuzzy Jayling....selective. They are selective with the math, just like the Obama camp is selective with the rules.

[SantaCruzen]

We need to go back and reread , Got a Problem? Ask the Super,
By GERALDINE A. FERRARO, Published: February 25, 2008. Farraro is one of the authors of the SuperDelegate rules and we really need to study why the Democrats created those rules.

"So we created superdelegates and gave that designation to every Democratic member of Congress. Today the 796 superdelegates also include Democratic governors, former presidents and vice presidents, and members of the Democratic National Committee and former heads of the national committee.

These superdelegates, we reasoned, are the party’s leaders. They are the ones who can bring together the most liberal members of our party with the most conservative and reach accommodation. They would help write the platform. They would determine if a delegate should be seated. They would help determine the rules. And having done so, they would have no excuse to walk away from the party or its presidential nominee.

It worked. In 1984 I headed the party’s platform committee. We produced the longest platform in Democratic history, a document that stated the party’s principles in broad terms that neither the most liberal nor the most conservative elected officials would denounce. It generated no fights at the convention. It was a document that no one would walk away from. We lost in 1984, big time. But that loss had nothing to do with Democratic Party infighting.

Today, with the possibility that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will end up with about the same number of delegates after all 50 states have held their primaries and caucuses, the pundits and many others are saying that superdelegates should not decide who the nominee will be. That decision, they say, should rest with the rank-and-file Democrats who went to the polls and voted."
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/25/opinion/25ferraro.html?_r=3&pagewanted=1&oref=slogin


Basically, the SuperDelegates were created so that Party Leaders, Insiders who worked inside the Party Leadership could have a hand in decision making. Our Democracy seems to fair at times and not fair at times. Well, I visited the Philippine Islands about four years ago. I was there a month. I met with several people who were educators and government leaders. It was explained to me that one of the main problems with Democracy in the Philippines is that the popular votes are going to the television and movie actors. People who are not educated see those images all of the time and relate to them.

That is a real problem in countries where people have been separated from access of education or the governing process. I have given talks on Indigenous Peoples and Oral Traditions of Tribal Peoples. Tribal people were together socially. They had periods of time during the day and evenings in which they gathered around eating and festivities and talked to each other. Most Americans do not even sit at a dining table with their own families each evening. Most Americans do not know names their Mayor or City Council Members or Supervisors in their own local towns and cities. In major cities like New York, okay, those Mayors make daily headlines in the New York Times. In Santa Cruz, California with the signs stating that there are 55,000 people, no way does the City Council members make headlines, much less daily.

If Americans are so far socially abstracted from politics then the SuperDelegates make real sense. Those Party Leaders and Insiders do know the names of the other people they work amongst and meet with as per their job description.

In this election, we do have an opportunity to ask every question and turn every leaf and stone. We the People are waking up as a Nation to form a more Perfect Union. We have two candidates who break molds and one of them listens. We all know who I mean. She has been listening and responding. We have her full attention in a way that we have never had the attention of a President since maybe the birth of our country when men had to gather to choose our First President.

We are making history with our revolutionary election. It has been painful but the Conversation style, the protocol to get into a direct conversation with the people has really opened our candidate and politicians are now being forced to consider our voices in more and more clear and precise terms. We the People are negotiating for Freedoms which we were guaranteed but never realized.

The SuperDelegates are really listening even if it seems that they are not. They might try to ignore us all. Yet they know that they have to do the right thing even if it means that they are testing a moral dilemma.

[Arctic907]

I was browsing the McC website and it has the campaign's newest strategy posted. It is interesting that he is using the Electoral College math startegy that was posted here somewhere in an earlier thread about how HRC wins. The same stategy video talks about BHO burn rate in fundraising vs. McC's, which was also intersting to me. I never realized how important that was when I see the variance in percentages between the two.

[Mrsawd]

Hillary Won Fair



Obama is not a winner ! this is just the Facts !!

[Alessandro Machi]

We need to go back and reread , Got a Problem? Ask the Super,
By GERALDINE A. FERRARO, Published: February 25, 2008. Farraro is one of the authors of the SuperDelegate rules and we really need to study why the Democrats created those rules.

"So we created superdelegates and gave that designation to every Democratic member of Congress. Today the 796 superdelegates also include Democratic governors, former presidents and vice presidents, and members of the Democratic National Committee and former heads of the national committee.

These superdelegates, we reasoned, are the party’s leaders. They are the ones who can bring together the most liberal members of our party with the most conservative and reach accommodation. They would help write the platform. They would determine if a delegate should be seated. They would help determine the rules. And having done so, they would have no excuse to walk away from the party or its presidential nominee.

It worked. In 1984 I headed the party’s platform committee. We produced the longest platform in Democratic history, a document that stated the party’s principles in broad terms that neither the most liberal nor the most conservative elected officials would denounce. It generated no fights at the convention. It was a document that no one would walk away from. We lost in 1984, big time. But that loss had nothing to do with Democratic Party infighting.

Today, with the possibility that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will end up with about the same number of delegates after all 50 states have held their primaries and caucuses, the pundits and many others are saying that superdelegates should not decide who the nominee will be. That decision, they say, should rest with the rank-and-file Democrats who went to the polls and voted."
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/25/opinion/25ferraro.html?_r=3&pagewanted=1&oref=slogin


Basically, the SuperDelegates were created so that Party Leaders, Insiders who worked inside the Party Leadership could have a hand in decision making. Our Democracy seems to fair at times and not fair at times. Well, I visited the Philippine Islands about four years ago. I was there a month. I met with several people who were educators and government leaders. It was explained to me that one of the main problems with Democracy in the Philippines is that the popular votes are going to the television and movie actors. People who are not educated see those images all of the time and relate to them.

That is a real problem in countries where people have been separated from access of education or the governing process. I have given talks on Indigenous Peoples and Oral Traditions of Tribal Peoples. Tribal people were together socially. They had periods of time during the day and evenings in which they gathered around eating and festivities and talked to each other. Most Americans do not even sit at a dining table with their own families each evening. Most Americans do not know names their Mayor or City Council Members or Supervisors in their own local towns and cities. In major cities like New York, okay, those Mayors make daily headlines in the New York Times. In Santa Cruz, California with the signs stating that there are 55,000 people, no way does the City Council members make headlines, much less daily.

If Americans are so far socially abstracted from politics then the SuperDelegates make real sense. Those Party Leaders and Insiders do know the names of the other people they work amongst and meet with as per their job description.

In this election, we do have an opportunity to ask every question and turn every leaf and stone. We the People are waking up as a Nation to form a more Perfect Union. We have two candidates who break molds and one of them listens. We all know who I mean. She has been listening and responding. We have her full attention in a way that we have never had the attention of a President since maybe the birth of our country when men had to gather to choose our First President.

We are making history with our revolutionary election. It has been painful but the Conversation style, the protocol to get into a direct conversation with the people has really opened our candidate and politicians are now being forced to consider our voices in more and more clear and precise terms. We the People are negotiating for Freedoms which we were guaranteed but never realized.

The SuperDelegates are really listening even if it seems that they are not. They might try to ignore us all. Yet they know that they have to do the right thing even if it means that they are testing a moral dilemma.

When Geraldine Ferraro was ousted, I defended her comments. Another example of the fix being in as what she said was not controversial. http://alessandromachi.blogspot.com/2008/03/geraldine-ferraros-comments-explained.html

Of course the press, led by MSNBC and Keith Olbermann, spun the comments in such a stupid fashion it was stunning to watch.

[PunjabSherman]

the same way everyone else on Hillary team: Bill, Carville, Chelsea, Huma and all others. The entire season was cleverly gamed, and calculatedly directed at every turn. The fix was in very early, the narrative spin was pre-set, and there is no other way to describe it as other than the "vast left wing conspiracy" to diminish the Clinton brand. But I have faith that HRC will prevail in the end somehow. One last stand, Denver!!